Posted on 07/02/2025 9:53:06 AM PDT by lasereye
Did the U.S. economy really lose jobs in June for the first time since the pandemic? Payroll king ADP says yes, but investors ought to treat the report with a heavy dose of skepticism.
ADP on Wednesday said the private sector eliminated 33,000 jobs last month owing to lingering uncertainty caused by U.S. trade wars. The decline in employment was the first ADP has measured since March 2023.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Doesn’t make a lot of sense. We’ve had tariffs before.
EMPLOYERS NO LONGER HIRING THE LBGT, ETC GROUP & ALL THE SNOWFLAKES....?
ADP’s bread and butter is payroll services. Their reputation isn’t build on these reports so it’s no big hit to them if their wrong.
The ADP jobs report one month ago for May looked disastrous before the actual jobs report came in much “better than expected”....
I often find their numbers to be inconsistent with the government’s count... but I trust ADP far more!!
Very helpful. Thanks.
They did my payroll for 8 months never got one right.
As I just noted on another thread.
ADP make it clear that their report is intended as an independent measure of the labor market and demand for workers. Thus the numbers are going to vary. They also report on differnt factors in the job market.
I am not going to worry about a downturn in numbers that basically represents a rounding error in the total employment picture.
Unemployment in the tech sector is rampant. Wages are cratering, too.
President Trump has totally abandoned his first-term policies on H-1B visas, Green Cards, OPT, etc. The result has been a wipe-out of jobs for American STEM graduates.
I’ve personally been impacted by this. I’m not happy one bit.
All the “experts” have no expertise in the new paradigm. They have no experience modeling a government shedding waste. They have no experience modeling tariffs designed to reshore American jobs. They have no experience modeling a president who is not beholden to their economic opinions.
In the coming months continue to see the word “unexpected” at the front of every economic news dispatch from the so called “experts.”
I thought there was something like 7 million job openings?
Bkmk
The careful selection of wording implies that the COMPANIES no longer have jobs for workers or workers have been let go.
ADP measures worker numbers in their HR administrative system, not actual employment opportunities companies have openings for.
During Trump’s 1st term, the economy was so hot a worker could leave their current employment to move up as an employee of a different company with great safety. (Tell your current abusive employer go pound sand).
It’s happening again.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
Note this bit...
Hires
In May, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.5 million and 3.4 percent, respectively.
The number of hires decreased in federal government (-11,000). (See table 2.)
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