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Be very skeptical of ADP report showing economy lost jobs for the first time in years
Marketwatch ^ | July 2, 2025 | By Jeffry Bartash

Posted on 07/02/2025 9:53:06 AM PDT by lasereye

Did the U.S. economy really lose jobs in June for the first time since the pandemic? Payroll king ADP says yes, but investors ought to treat the report with a heavy dose of skepticism.

ADP on Wednesday said the private sector eliminated 33,000 jobs last month owing to lingering uncertainty caused by U.S. trade wars. The decline in employment was the first ADP has measured since March 2023.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: adp; jobs
This is all the article content that non-subscribers can see.
1 posted on 07/02/2025 9:53:06 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Doesn’t make a lot of sense. We’ve had tariffs before.


2 posted on 07/02/2025 9:59:37 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: Sacajaweau

EMPLOYERS NO LONGER HIRING THE LBGT, ETC GROUP & ALL THE SNOWFLAKES....?


3 posted on 07/02/2025 10:01:45 AM PDT by ridesthemiles (not giving up on TRUMP---EVER)
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To: lasereye
I quit going to MarketWatch since Paul Merriman quit writing articles there. I owe him a forever thanks for his Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio.
4 posted on 07/02/2025 10:02:52 AM PDT by Tell It Right (1 Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: lasereye

ADP’s bread and butter is payroll services. Their reputation isn’t build on these reports so it’s no big hit to them if their wrong.


5 posted on 07/02/2025 10:04:56 AM PDT by ProudDeplorable (Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty. ~ Ronald Reagan)
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To: lasereye

The ADP jobs report one month ago for May looked disastrous before the actual jobs report came in much “better than expected”....


6 posted on 07/02/2025 10:06:55 AM PDT by God luvs America
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To: ProudDeplorable

I often find their numbers to be inconsistent with the government’s count... but I trust ADP far more!!


7 posted on 07/02/2025 10:07:12 AM PDT by mn-bush-man
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To: lasereye

Very helpful. Thanks.


8 posted on 07/02/2025 10:08:04 AM PDT by EliRoom8
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To: mn-bush-man
RE but I trust ADP far more!!

They did my payroll for 8 months never got one right.

9 posted on 07/02/2025 10:10:35 AM PDT by IC Ken (If the government can just print Money why do I have to pay taxes?)
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To: mn-bush-man

As I just noted on another thread.

ADP make it clear that their report is intended as an independent measure of the labor market and demand for workers. Thus the numbers are going to vary. They also report on differnt factors in the job market.

I am not going to worry about a downturn in numbers that basically represents a rounding error in the total employment picture.


10 posted on 07/02/2025 10:18:18 AM PDT by Steven Scharf
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To: lasereye

Unemployment in the tech sector is rampant. Wages are cratering, too.

President Trump has totally abandoned his first-term policies on H-1B visas, Green Cards, OPT, etc. The result has been a wipe-out of jobs for American STEM graduates.

I’ve personally been impacted by this. I’m not happy one bit.


11 posted on 07/02/2025 10:34:17 AM PDT by Yossarian
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To: lasereye

All the “experts” have no expertise in the new paradigm. They have no experience modeling a government shedding waste. They have no experience modeling tariffs designed to reshore American jobs. They have no experience modeling a president who is not beholden to their economic opinions.

In the coming months continue to see the word “unexpected” at the front of every economic news dispatch from the so called “experts.”


12 posted on 07/02/2025 11:49:41 AM PDT by RightOnTheBorder
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To: lasereye

I thought there was something like 7 million job openings?


13 posted on 07/02/2025 12:20:11 PM PDT by A_Former_Democrat (Boycott everything Mexican. Vacations, food, restaurants. Regardless of ownership. )
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To: lasereye

Bkmk


14 posted on 07/02/2025 3:24:26 PM PDT by sauropod (Make sure Satan has to climb over a lot of Scripture to get to you. John MacArthur Ne supra crepidam)
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The careful selection of wording implies that the COMPANIES no longer have jobs for workers or workers have been let go.

ADP measures worker numbers in their HR administrative system, not actual employment opportunities companies have openings for.

During Trump’s 1st term, the economy was so hot a worker could leave their current employment to move up as an employee of a different company with great safety. (Tell your current abusive employer go pound sand).

It’s happening again.


15 posted on 07/03/2025 3:25:46 AM PDT by USCG SimTech
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To: lasereye

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Note this bit...

Hires

In May, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.5 million and 3.4 percent, respectively.
The number of hires decreased in federal government (-11,000). (See table 2.)


16 posted on 07/03/2025 3:37:23 AM PDT by mewzilla (Swing away, Mr. President, swing away!)
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