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A Twelve-Day War’s Twelve Surprises
Front Page Magazine ^ | June 30, 2025 | Daniel Pipes

Posted on 06/30/2025 10:11:15 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

For those who follow international politics, the days following Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran meant an addictive check of the smartphone every few hours to learn the latest twist. From that avalanche of surprises, twelve stand out, one marking each day of the Twelve-Day War. A question about the future follows each historical snippet.

For starters, the American side:

  1. The White House cowboy succeeded

    An uninhibited, reckless, norm-breaking egomaniac dominates American public life as no politician in 236 years. Yes, Donald Trump served as president once before, but he then felt relatively constrained. Four years out of power, some of it sitting humiliated in a dingy courtroom, meant a return to the presidency raring to do things his way, ignoring customs, caution, and propriety. This initially played out domestically, with an unprecedented assertiveness vis-à-vis the executive branch, Congress, and the courts. The Israel-Iran War took it to the world stage, with Trump apparently solo extemporizing his own rules, strategies, and communications, startling even his own aides. To a remarkable extent, his efforts worked. Is this a one-time fluke or a sign of things to come?

  2. Washington preempted a potential nuclear enemy

    An uninhibited, reckless, norm-breaking egomaniac dominates American public life as no politician in 236 years. Yes, Donald Trump served as president once before, but he then felt relatively constrained. Four years out of power, some of it sitting humiliated in a dingy courtroom, meant a return to the presidency raring to do things his way, ignoring customs, caution, and propriety. This...

  3. Americans can still lead...
  4. A partisan Washington-Jerusalem bond...
  5. A quick, decisive American Middle East success...
  6. Alarmists made wrong predictions...
  7. Air power won the day...
  8. Pre-placed agents changes the battlefield...
  9. Israel dominates...
  10. Israel’s Gaza failure...
  11. Performative war replaced real war...
  12. Tehran attacked an ally...

Those twelve days should have repercussions long into the future.

(Excerpt) Read more at frontpagemag.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 06/30/2025 10:11:15 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
"Washington preempted a potential nuclear enemy"

LOL. Off by 46 presidents!

2 posted on 06/30/2025 10:14:45 AM PDT by Buttons12 ( )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

And yet it seems the Mullahs are as firmly in charge as ever. The best chance since the revolution to get rid of the tyrants has now passed.


3 posted on 06/30/2025 10:39:37 AM PDT by Midwesterner53
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To: Midwesterner53
The best chance since the revolution to get rid of the tyrants has now passed.

There isn't going to be a revolution in Iran. There never was going to be one.

4 posted on 06/30/2025 10:40:42 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

Freedom will not stay dormant for ever.


5 posted on 06/30/2025 11:10:22 AM PDT by Midwesterner53
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Bkmk


6 posted on 06/30/2025 11:17:03 AM PDT by sauropod (Make sure Satan has to climb over a lot of Scripture to get to you. John MacArthur Ne supra crepidam)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

For issues like the Middle East, it is always the same.

Even big events devolve into “Another day, another dollar.”

The U.S. administration does the best it can, a recent success, a ton of missteps along before that, some negotiations that sort of worked, many that definitely didn’t.

Then another year comes along and we get back to work. Reminds me of farming actually.


7 posted on 06/30/2025 12:22:25 PM PDT by 2manydegrees
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Pipes is right on some points and a little off in others.

1. The White House cowboy succeeded
2. Washington preempted a potential nuclear enemy
3. Americans can still lead

All correct. It is also more correct that the Democrats hate Trump so much they would rather have the country and our allies suffer then let Trump accomplish anything and get the credit for it.

From #4, "For example, we now know that the U.S. Air Force provided hundreds of aerial refuelings for Israeli jets over Syria or Iraq on their way to Iran":
No one in the Trump administration or the Air Force has confirmed this. News media likes to speculate what could be connected, especially when it involves military matters when no one who knows is talking. Then eventually, some news agency puts the word "confirmed" or "confirmation" in an article title. Usually, the confirmation never has a source confirming what is supposed to be confirmed. This is classic "Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know", with a layer of those who don't know, want to sound good by making things up.

Israel has its own airborne refueling tankers. Their older tankers that were good enough to get the Israeli Air Force to Iran when they were bought, are still good enough for the job. Israel does not need US tankers for what they were already prepared to carry out on their own.

"6. Alarmists made wrong predictions":
Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon and Douglas Macgregor among others of the more MAGA-than-Trump commentators were not just wrong, they laid bare how far over the deep end they are and have been. They left has lots of so-called experts who just use headlines as excuses to tell Democrats what they want to hear and as platforms for their own agendas and issues. Conservative commentary is not exempt from media manipulation.

"7. Air power won the day" and "11. Performative war replaced real war":
These two contradict each other a little. Iran can support Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. In a stand up fight the proper Iranian armed forces showed how nearly useless they are, except as validating how well US weapons work.

When one side cannot mount effective opposition, the other side almost always gets total dominance. Drawing deep conclusions from a lopsided fight usually means little in the long run.

"12. Tehran attacked an ally":
Iran told Trump and Qatar in advance, and Trump let Iran get in a face saving attack on the Al Udeid Air Base which is largely abandoned. This is a repeat of what happened when after General Solemani was killed. Iran launched a retaliatory attack on al-Asad Airbase. Iran warned the US of both attacks in advance, and they did no real damage. They were just enough for Iran to claim "revenge!", not enough to invite further retaliation.

This reinforces how precarious the situation the Iranian government faces, when they need permission to save face.

8 posted on 06/30/2025 2:18:17 PM PDT by Widget Jr (9/11 🇺🇸 7/7 🇬🇧 11M 🇪🇸 26/11 🇮🇳 10/7 🇮🇱)
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