Posted on 03/07/2025 7:19:56 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Is this another Godfather-esque play to make Ali Khamenei an offer he can't refuse? Is it a reversal on Barack Obama's JCPOA? Or is it a way to de-escalate with both Russia and China and dial down tensions by restoring commerce as the main medium of international relations? Or is this just spitballing to suss out the possibilities?
Perhaps Khamenei is asking himself the same questions after receiving a letter from Donald Trump asking to negotiate an end to Iran's nuclear-weapons program:
President Trump said he sent a letter on Thursday to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and stressed that he wants to reach a deal on the country's nuclear program.
Why it matters: Trump's letter to Khamenei, which the president revealed in an interview with Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that will air on Sunday, is the first significant engagement between the U.S. and Iran since the new administration took office.
What he's saying: Trump reiterated in the interview that he wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran.
- "The other alternative is you have to do something because Iran can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said in the interview.
There is yet another possibility, although it seems even less likely to succeed than those listed above. Trump might want to reach a deal with Iran that leaves Israel in peace and Hamas relocated to Iran. Trump wants to eject all of the Gazans from the territory and reform it into a resort enclave that leaves Israel's southern region secure from attack snd their agricultural sector in peace.
Needless to say, the Iranians are not likely to agree to any such outcome. Their hatred of Israel is theocratic, radical, and fits within the paradigm of their extremist belief that Israel's destruction will unleash a holy war that will produce the messianic Twelfth Imam. Cutting deals with the mullahs of Iran is nearly impossible for that reason; they are pursuing a non-rational goal and will disregard rational considerations to achieve it.
The status quo isn't acceptable either, though, as Trump told Bartiromo. Something has to change, and that means Trump wants to appeal to reason -- first. Jacqui Heinrich posted the relevant part of the transcript this morning:
Maria Bartiromo: There are reports now that Russia says it will help the United States negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. What kind of deal with Iran do you want to do? You said they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
President Trump: There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal....
Maria Bartiromo: You wrote a letter to the Khomeni…
President Trump: Yes.Maria Bartiromo: When did you send the letter?
President Trump: Yesterday.
Maria Bartiromo: And you say, ‘you better negotiate’ or ‘we want you to negotiate.’
President Trump: I didn’t say ‘you better,’ I said I hope you're going to negotiate, because it's going to be a lot better for Iran, and I think they want to get that letter. The other alternative is we have to do something, because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon.
Trump may not have written 'you better,' but that message will get heard in Tehran nonetheless. The involvement of the Russians might mitigate that somewhat, but the Iranian regime hates the US almost as much as they hate the Israelis. And again, their ultimate aim is not to live in peace but to prevail in war to dominate at least the region and more broadly the entire world, a point that both Russia and China overlook in their own shortsightedness about the US.
In the end, this looks like an "it can't hurt" sort of effort. It doesn't cost anything to send a letter. The Iranian regime will likely reject it anyway, or won't take negotiations seriously even with Russia acting as interlocutor. Like Hamas, they're almost certainly convinced that Trump won't escalate matters beyond rhetoric and economic sanctions that the regime already evades to the extent possible. Is that an accurate analysis? Hamas will find out first -- and then perhaps Iran might take a different approach.
Addendum: Iran seemingly rejected the overture this morning, but don't take this as a final word:
Iran will not resume negotiations with the United States on its nuclear programme while President Donald Trump applies his "maximum pressure" policy, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has told AFP.
https://t.co/XTYXZanbiG pic.twitter.com/8htaIeiV36— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2025
The regime likes to test the limits before it commits to anything. This is less a rejection than a counter-offer, at least at the moment. Stay tuned.
The stupid Ukraine war has caused relations between Iran and Russia to spin up.
I don’t think we can stop Iran becoming a nuclear power soon unless we “make a deal.”
Russia trades with Iran, there are some relations, but even Russia was worried if Iran becomes a nuclear power.
It was not in Russia’s long term security interest either. I think some of that has changed since 2022.
Just remember, none of this would have happened if Bush hadn’t taken out Saddam Hussein...
They were killing each other just fine for 20 years...
Why screw with perfection?
Notice the non mullah outfit?-)
Who are they trying to appeal to?-)
That’s the President. He’s not a Mullah.
But he decides nothing, its all up to Khamenei, who is the head mullah, and its got to be stamped by the IRGC.
Russia (Putin) provided the material for the “OTHER” path for Iranian nukes. Russia was in it to their eyebrows. I doubt its their fault Iran hasn’t tested a nuke yet.
Anyway Iran will son be the least of anyone’s proliferation problems. What with the Germans, Poles (both indicated nuke projects yesterday). I’m betting on the Japanese next.
Trump: You can either put your signature on the contract or your brains on the contract.
Russia has long been an ally of Iran, and always promising them weapons. It has nothing to do with the Ukraine War.
Russia has wanted their hands on Iran for years, going back to the Czars.
Iranian leaders had better throw out their pagers.
Russia is a nuclear energy and weapons nation.
Iran is trying to build a nuke.
Russia historically, though aligned with Iran, was not keen on the Islamic Republic to be a nuclear power.
Russia was hard up in 2022 / 2023 in that certain weapon systems in critical need were not on hand and could not be manufactured quickly enough. The Ukraine war connection to this issue.
Iran was willing to step in and supply drones, missiles, artillery shells etc.
Russian necessity was the mother of greater cooperation.
Bomb the leaders of Iran. Destroy the nuclear facilities as well.
Maybe we should use Nuclear Weapons for both targets.
That way they would know we were serious about preventing anyone from using Nuclear Weapons because of the dangers of fallout spreading across the globe carried by the trade winds.
If they have any nuclear weapons, this will set them off and make them useless.
I call this the Kamala Harris/Tim Walz plan.
Limited options
There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal.
They do business, Russia sells arms (some advanced stuff), provides some technical expertise in certain areas (industry and defense) and they help each other out politically.
BUT, Russia was never that excited about having a nuclear armed Iran on their border.
The war in Ukraine may not have changed how Russia really feels about Iran having nukes, but it necessitated they cooperate closer with Iran because they needed drones, missiles, artillery shells and some other systems in critical need.
Russia has likely moved to embracing the idea of a nuclear Iran (made concessions).
That doesn't mean they will pay for or hand Iran a nuke on a silver platter, but they also aren't standing in the way.
For us, if we don't want a nuclear Iran, it means we have to make a deal with them.
The geniuses in support of the Ukraine stupidity simply do not realize or accept the (((FACTS))) that Russia is a nuclear power, a bigger world economy that does global trade, built up as a super power (militarily sovereign), is rich in strategic natural resources (which others need), has a large population, has the ability to project force, a robust intel service, some high tech and industry, and is a player on the world stage (militarily, economic, politically). We are NOT deaing with some third rate Middle East regime like we are used to.
F-ing with the Russians will have ripples around the world.
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