Last month, Karl Rove published a Wall Street Journal op-ed noting that, with 2.2 million California votes then yet to be counted, in 2024 Kamala Harris obtained some 7.5 million fewer votes than Joe Biden had in 2020. With the votes now in, we see Donald Trump received 77.3 million votes nationwide this year, 3,056,000 more than his 72.25 million in 2020.
By contrast, Harris received a whopping 6,267,500 fewer than Biden did. Where did Biden’s 2020 voters and their votes go in 2024?
Even if half of the 6 million went to Trump’s 3 million improvement, this still leaves the question of what happened to Biden’s 3 million who forsook Harris. We know they didn’t go to third-party candidates, because the totals for third-party candidates declined 656,000 in 2024, from 2,272,500 in 2020 to 1,616,600 (all numbers are rounded).
Next, let’s see where Trump improved his vote tally in 2024 over 2020. He obtained his extra 6 million from all but ten states: Alaska (down 5,500), Hawaii (-3,000), Indiana (-9,600), Kansas (-12,400), Louisiana (-47,000), Mississippi (-8,800), Oregon (-39,000), Washington (-53,600), West Virginia (-11,900), Wyoming (-1,000). In each of these ten states, Harris’ 2024 votes declined from 2020 approximately double or more than Trump’s decline, so his drop did not help her.
Harris’ totals in 44 states were below Biden’s, according to my calculations using vote totals rounded from Federal Election Commission results for 2016 and 2020 and the currently available results from the 50 states and D.C. for 2024. Harris improved the 2024 vote tally over Biden’s 2020 tally in only six states. Utah’s vote for Harris increased over Biden by a mere 2,300.
The other five were swing states, discussed below. Amazingly, although Harris improved on Biden in these six states, Harris was still eclipsed by Trump’s improvements and he won all six states. Let’s see what happened in the seven swing states (in alphabetical order):
- Arizona: Harris declined by 89,000. Trump improved his 2020 vote by about 8,600. Third-party candidates dropped from 53,000 to 18,300.
- Georgia: Harris improved 74,400, but Trump improved by more than double that, by 201,000; third-party votes dropped from 63,000 to 18,000.
- Michigan: Harris improved by 12,700, but Trump improved by 43 times as much, 556,700; third-party votes were about even.
- Nevada: Harris improved a paltry 1,700, but Trump improved by 81,200.
- North Carolina: Harris improved by 31,100, but Trump improved by more than four times that amount, 139,500. Third-party votes declined from 61,000 to 24,700.
- Pennsylvania: This is another state where Harris declined, by 35,000; Trump improved by 165,600. Third-party votes declined from 80,500 to 34,500.
- Wisconsin: Harris improved 37,200 but Trump improved by more than double that, 87,600. Third-party votes declined from about 40,000 to 30,000.
Next, let’s sample ten other states (also in alphabetical order):
- California: Trump improved by a modest amount, 75,700, but Harris earned 1,834,800 fewer votes than Biden had. Third-party votes climbed approximately 100,000, from 269,000 to 365,400.
- Colorado: Trump improved by a modest amount, 13,000, but Harris had 75,800 fewer votes. Third-party votes were close.
- Connecticut: Trump improved 22,000; Harris was down 89,000; third-party votes were close.
- Florida: Trump climbed 441,000; Harris was down 614,000; and third-party votes cut in half, from 85,000 to 43,000.
- Illinois: Trump moved up, but only 2,000; Harris fell 91,000; third-party votes climbed slightly from 97,000 to 101,500.
- Massachusetts: Trump climbed 84,300; Harris fell 255,500; third-party votes declined from 65,500 to 26,500.
- New Jersey: Trump rose 84,900; Harris fell 387,700; third-party votes rose from 46,000 to 62,500.
- New York: Trump rose 194,100; Harris fell 625,800; third-party votes cut in half, from 83,000 to 47,000.
- Texas: Trump climbed 503,100; Harris declined 423,750; third-party votes cut in half, from 160,000 to 82,700.
- Virginia: Trump was up 112,700; Harris dropped 78,200; third-party votes cut in half, from 65,000 to 35,000.
Again, it’s unclear where the Democratic vote went in 2024, since only half of the missing votes between 2020 and 2024 may have gone to Trump and none to third-party candidates. Maybe they stayed home, as Rove suggests? Or was it that the Democratic vote in 2020 was somehow inflated — perhaps it wasn’t real (i.e., wasn’t legal), as Rove rejects?
It certainly may seem that, for some reason, Biden’s 2020 vote total of 81 million was an outlier, since it was a whopping 15 million more than Hillary Clinton’s vote total in 2016. At the same time, however, Trump’s 2020 total of 73 million was 11 million over his 63 million in 2016, and there is no claim that Trump’s 2020 total was inflated by illegal votes.
If Biden’s 2020 vote was an outlier, then maybe we should look at Clinton’s 2016 vote for some kind of baseline. How did Harris do by comparison? Overall, Harris had 75 million in 2024 compared to Hillary’s 66 million in 2016.
In 47 states, Harris did appreciably better than Clinton did. In Pennsylvania she did a half million better, in Texas by 1 million, and in Virginia by 400,000. She declined from Hillary in only three states, and then only by a bit: Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
For an additional reference point, let’s look at how Trump did in 2024 over 2016. Trump garnered 77.3 million votes in 2024 versus 63 million in 2016, an improvement of more than 14 million. He improved substantially in every state except Maine, where he improved by only 2,500 votes.
Here are results from 13 states, including all seven swing states (in alphabetical order), that account for more than 7 million of Trump’s 14-plus million improvement: Arizona (Trump went up 500,000), California (up 1.5 million), Florida (1.5 million), Georgia (500,000), Michigan (500,000), Nevada (250,000), New Mexico (100,000), North Carolina (500,000), Pennsylvania (600,000), South Carolina (300,000), Utah (350,000), Virginia (300,000), Wisconsin (300,000).
So, why was Biden so high in 2020 and Harris so low in 2024?