Decision 2024: Steve Kornacki breaks down early voting numbers

Today ^ | Oct. 29, 2024

[MinorityRepublican]

With Election Day one week away, NBC’s Steve Kornacki joins TODAY to break down where the presidential race stands and what the path to 270 looks like for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. He also breaks down the gender gap between the two candidates and what to make of the early voting numbers.

[1Old Pro]

I went to vote early last night, 100 people in line. I’d love to know the registration breakdown of these early voters.

[jerod]

[marktwain]

Anything from NBC is treated with skepticism.

[Parley Baer]

“Anything from NBC is treated with skepticism.”

Ditto to that.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here are the outputs from my poll-based Monte Carlo probability model's outputs as of yesterday.

Here is the overall probability map based on the polls and their associated margins of error:

Some callouts:

1. The Expected Value (probability-weighted average of all 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations) is 281 Electoral College Votes for Trump.
2. The P10 is the value that has a 10% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P10 is 219.
3. The P50 is the median value where 50% of the results are higher and 50% of the results are lower. The P50 is 291.
4. The P90 is the value that has a 90% chance OR LESS of occurring. The P90 is 325.
5. The probability of Trump getting 270 OR MORE ECV is 63.7%.

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:

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And on the Senate side...

Here is the overall probability map for the Senate elections (black means no Senate election in that state):

Here is the aggregate probability distribution based on 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations:

Here is the battleground states analysis:

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-PJ

[TornadoAlley3]

The female pro aborts are showing up. We have to step up and get more voters out. We don’t have enough in PA yet. More. More. More. That state is too close.

[MinorityRepublican]

The female pro aborts are showing up. We have to step up and get more voters out. We don’t have enough in PA yet. More. More. More. That state is too close.

I think I feel better about MI, VA, WI than PA.

[willk]

Can’t watch the video right now. Can someone sum up? Thanks.

[cgbg]

Imho the biggest clear error is the Ohio US Senate seat.

President Trump is crushing it in early voting. He will win Ohio by a ridiculous margin.

That will almost certainly drag the Republican U.S. Senate candidate over the finish line.

[cgbg]

One reason for optimism for PA is that there were a million less mail in ballots requested than in 2020.

Those vote Democrat by a 2 to 1 margin.

That translates into Trump +3 if all other variables remain the same.

[PalominoGuy]

...really, Michigan? The Rats dropped 1.4 MM mail in ballots in MI. How do you think those will break from the NGOs that fill them out? RinoRepubs are playing the Washington Generals game and won’t even try and challenge the dirty voter rolls or the false addresses of “mail-in” voters... CommieLaLa will harvest 300 Electoral College votes... 2020 and 2022 rinse and repeat!

[cgbg]

If President Trump carries Georgia, North Carolina and PA then Michigan will not matter.

[Owen]

What exactly is the rationale of your employer having you talk cheat on right wing blogs. Is it not clear to everyone?

And btw, Michigan does not register to vote by party, so mail-in ballots will not note which party.

[Stonewall1]

Same in Shenandoah Valley yesterday. Line wait was 20-30 minutes

[Betty Jane]

Baris and Barnes last night said that Brown will most likely lose. Trump needs at least 4 points ahead in AZ to carry Kari Lake. They also see Maine flipping before any of MN, NH, VA, or NM, in that order. They were talking about Fetterman saying Harris is cooked in PA. And Trump probably takes MI and WI.

They were looking at early votes compared to both 2016 and 2020. They were talking about how so many pollsters are missing white blue collar men in their polls l. They are one of Trumps strongest vote in person groups whether early or on Election Day. They also said it’s easy to persuade low propensity Republican women to vote by mail.

[napscoordinator]

I was pretty happy. A 1 point lead in popular vote for Harris is awful for her. And the close states look good for us as well. I’m looking at this positively.

[Rural_Michigan]

Whitmer and Jocelyn Benson and Dana Nessel regime will not let Trump win,they will play as dirty as it takes to not fail their mission.

[Political Junkie Too]

I hear you, but Ohio has been a split ticket state for a long time with Sherrod Brown holding that seat since Mike DeWine vacated the seat in 2007.

I'm hopeful too that this cycle will bring Ohio into balance as a Republican state. However, the polls are the polls. The current results are being driven down by this poll:

• Bowling Green/YouTube (10/10-10/21): Moreno 45% - Brown 47%

Without this poll, Bernie Moreno's probability of winning jumps to 66.8% (from 54.3%).

There is also a poll from September (which I disabled as stale) from the NY Times/Siena College (9/21-9/26) that had Moreno 43% - Brown 47%. I suspect the Bowling Green/YouTube poll is being biased by the long poll duration that is offsetting the recent surge in Brown's popularity.

-PJ

[jerod]

When they say Kamala is tied or 1 point ahead... That means she’s likely down by 5 or more points... So you have every reason to be optimistic.