Posted on 10/26/2024 6:52:10 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
More Virginia data:
https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/2024-november-general-election/
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2024-early-voting-by-party-16-days-out/
The general Pew model for early voting/mail in votes by party—nationwide:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4273604/posts
Lets crunch the numbers based on early voting and mail in ballots:
Total early votes cast:
1.46 million—80% in person, 20% in mail (from chart on page, estimate)
Early voting by party:
46.5% Republican, 45.5% Democrat
Those are actual numbers.
Now lets apply the polled numbers on early voting/mail in by party.
I get a 5% Trump win in the state based on the model.
We will see....
The late coup from Biden to Harris erased hundreds of thousands of pre-selected Biden ballots.
Now it's probably a toss-up. But we won't hear it from CNN. If VA is in play, the election is basically over.
Heads up.
Counting early votes by party and evaluating advantage by that does run the risk of ignoring what rather many surveys at this point say —
Independents are the dominant cohort. Neither GOP or Dem are.
So party affiliation of Early Votes . . . may not be all that important.
The Guardian is the UK version of the Daily Worker.
It’s not close.
Isn’t the Guardian the old Cleveland Indians baseball team?
Good article. The Democrats are panicking and motivated by intense, apocalyptic fury, the Republicans are overconfident and measuring drapes. Fear and fury will motivate the Dems.
No one thinks polls are underestimating Trump this time around.
naps, you’re great, but there is not going to be a tie. you were alive in 1980, right? this has a 1980 feeling to it, if the fraud can be defeated.
I was 11 in 1980. But even I was glad Reagan won. Mostly because my parents were. I didn’t really understand politics then. I just was excited because my parents were.
They have to lie so when they cheat it is not as obvious. They will either steal it or kill him. There is too much at stake.
Stop focusing on polls and start focusing on early and mail votes already cast.
They will give you hard data you can use.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4273604/posts
You can look up that hard data by searching by state like this:
State Name “early voting by party”.
Then plug the numbers into the Pew model in the thread above and you can calculate what is happening based on the party registration of votes already cast.
NEW: Democrat groups release an ad of a young man m*sturbating in an effort to get people to vote for Kamala Harris. THAT is panic!
Any questions?
Baghdad Bob now works for the Guardian.
Reassuring news from MI6.
Just yesterday's newspaper.
sorry but demographics are never going to give the R candidate another 1980
Sad but true.
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