Posted on 10/26/2024 9:28:45 AM PDT by cgbg
Agreed. But absent that, how can one say that “Unfortunately the NJ numbers in the Presidential race do not look good”? If there is no baseline for comparison, how would one know the numbers are good or bad?
The formula for early voting gives you numbers to work with—you can compare what people said they would do (vote by mail, vote early, vote on election day) compared to what we know they actually did so far...all by party.
If Republicans exceed those numbers they are in good shape.
If Democrats exceed those numbers they are in good shape.
Cold equations—nothing complicated.
No guesswork.
For all we know, NJ is following historical patterns, or perhaps is actually better for Republicans than prior years.
Historical patterns are irrelevant.
We are looking at now and comparing it to now.
Let us take New Jersey since you mentioned it.
Early voting numbers to date are shown here:
Total early votes—these are actual: 733,900
Democrat party registration of these voters: 56.6%
Republican party registration of these voters: 23.6%
The Pew model says that Republicans will have a 20% national lead in registration of election day voters and 48% of their voters will show up on election day vs 28% will be Democrats.
I am applying this same percentage to New Jersey—obviously it will not be exact but in this case it won’t matter much.
By that formula the Republicans will pick up a little less than 20% of the gap on election day which would put the estimated New Jersey numbers—grand total—at:
43.6%
They would then lose to the Democratic candidate since the Democrats would have 56.4%.
Assumptions: Independents in all categories break approximately the same percentage in that state as the party registration and third parties will have a minimal effect on the numbers.
Of course these numbers can change every day until all early voting is complete—but the Democrats have what I would view as an insurmountable lead in New Jersey for this election.
There are two swing states where the states will not show the party affiliation—Michigan and Wisconsin.
Therefore I will be unable to use this method to make a prediction on those two states.
Maricopa AZ has to vote early because of the RINOs at the counting center and the corrupt Soros Sherriff protecting them
Republicans have turned out much larger percentages of their no and low propensity voters in early voting. ie they are not cannibalizing their core of voters who plan to vote on election day. Meanwhile core Democrat constituencies such as Blacks and Hispanic Women have low rates of turnout thus far.
Sorry if already posted but. . .
74% in person
17% by mail
91% total
So the other 9% of Trump supporters just aren’t going to vote? Don’t know how to vote? Forgot where to vote? Or simply just don’t know who or where or what they are?
Good point.
Apparently they answered “don’t know”.
:-)
Banking votes should help turnout, so both sides will want to perfect it. Turnout is key, we used to call people who hadn't voted by 7pm to encourage them to go vote, GOTV strategy is crucial to a campaign, especially in tight races.
My sister early voted today in a very populous area in SE Michigan, Monroe County. She waited 45 minutes to vote, partially because they combined four or so precincts. This is the 3rd day of early voting there, with the option going until Friday. Nov. 1st. The line was even longer when she left (2-3 pm approx)
I am debating. I wonder which ballots are easier to use for cheating by the Left...early or regular voting.
The problem with regular voting is that last minute “disasters” like electricity failures, water pipe leaks, running out of ballots, machines that break down, long lines can deter voting.
For that reason I encourage people to vote early at their convenience—even if it is just a day or two early.
Spoke with a buddy tonight- a black guy who lives in Atlanta and who votes for DJT.
Told me he was in Denver this weekend and EVERYBODY he spoke with about the election- from uber drivers to people on the street, etc, all said they were voting for Donald Trump.
Wow and the GOP is already outperforming on early voting.
In which states?
For swing states look at North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada for starters.
But a 310 to 330 EV is a blowout to me and THAT is very possible.
How? Even if Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, AND Arizona (6 out of 7 swing states) that still only gives him 302 EV. A solid victory, to be sure, but not a landslide by your definition.
I am honestly not so sure they wanted to win this cycle. I think they know there is going to be economic disaster and don’t want to be associated with it. They probably also did not have a candidate that was ready to step in right this moment. I think they are “punting” this election in order to groom their next “shining star”.
If the economy goes further into the toilet, they can blame it all on Trump and Republicans because they will likely be in charge of everything. I wouldn’t put it past the “powers that be” to have this type of long-range plan.
I hope I am wrong...and I truly hope that Trump can turn this ship around. But, in the big scheme of things, he’s a very small fish in the pond. I know his intentions are noble.
My numbers (fwiw) show President Trump winning Virginia as well. If he squeaks by in Wisconsin and NH that would get well above the 310 number.
Somewhat more difficult possibilities are MN and NM as well.
310 is totally doable—330 would require everything to fall into place.
Pretty much all states. Outperforming means doing better than expected...not leading.
We decided to do so. I am going with my husband’s instincts on this one
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