Posted on 10/22/2024 8:04:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Welcome to the "Would You Like Fries with That?" edition of Wargaming the Electoral College, your semi-occasional glimpse into the what-ifs and prognostications of the 2024 presidential election.
For what it's worth, I first started doing these — using photocopied U.S. maps and blue and red magic markers — during my sophomore year at Mizzou during the 1988 election. Which is my way of admitting I was not a well young man.
That election was a gimme, with George H.W. Bush successfully running for Ronald Reagan's third term, and what a shame he didn't deliver. So I called all 50 states correctly but since then have been pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised every four years.
Let's look at some potential Nov. 5 surprises.
I've colored North Carolina comfortably Red since the beginning of this campaign's Wargaming columns, but Harris is showing resilience there. The big unknown is what effect Hurricane Helene will have on residents of the western part of the state's ability to vote.
Another big what-if is Nevada. Joe Biden — remember him? he doesn't — didn't seem at all able to hold on to that state, but Harris is much stronger there than Slow Joe. Even Polymarket bettors who currently have Trump at over 62% odds of winning, in part by taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, peg Nevada as a toss-up.
The Polymarket map looks like this today:
They also have Trump's odds up another 2.6 points today and Harris down 2.5. Bettors must have seriously liked that McDonald's stunt.
Trump appears to be surging in Pennsylvania, and his Sunday McDonald's event even has Piers Morgan arguing that "If Donald Trump wins the election in 15 days, as I believe he will, it may well be this stunt that won it for him."
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Minnesota is within Trump's grasp. I don't think he can quite close the deal there but it is a possibility.
Dirty tricks in Georgia might be enough to put it in the Harris column.
later
I see Biden went to New Hampshire today. Is that state possibly in play?
Yes, Trump barely lost it.
> Trump winning the Keystone State would be most unpleasant for Harris, but would it really be a surprise? <
I have friends and relatives in western PA. I travel around the region often. Back in 2020 I saw many more Trump signs than Biden signs, even in Democrat areas. Yet Biden “won” PA - see my tagline.
And now it’s 2024. Same thing in regards to signs. We cannot be complacent (obviously). The cheating will make it razor close, IMO.
RE: I see Biden went to New Hampshire today. Is that state possibly in play?
I certainly hope so. The state’s motto is : LIVE FREE OR DIE.
Now, with the mass influx of folks from neighboring Massachusetts, it’s looking like they’re chooding DIE. :(
p
Another thing to watch for is the retreat/quieting of the anti-Trump peeps here.
RE: the retreat/quieting of the anti-Trump peeps here.
I haven’t seen much of their posts here even when it was early in the campaign.
Swing states saying they won’t have totals for days. Trump will need 200,000 lead on election night in these states.
Swing states saying they won’t have totals for days. Trump will need 200,000 lead on election night in these states.
Here’s my personal take:
If the election result is announced a few hours after the last state’s election closes as it used to be traditionally, TRUMP WINS.
If it’s going to take several days before the election results are announced, Kamala will be declared the winner.
Swing states saying they won’t have totals for days. Trump will need 200,000 lead on election night in these states.
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I thought he had over 200K leads in several swing states in2 020??
Until we have a “hot” revolution... Minnesota will never be Red. The DFL-mafia up here will not allow their control over this State to be lost without bloodshed.
Prove me wrong.
There are mail ballots coming in, and rules in many states are that they must be postmarked election day.
That means they cannot arrive on election day.
That means counting will be ongoing beyond election day, but it does not mean any huge number are arriving past election day. A “call” of the state would happen if the ballots outstanding number a few thousand and trickle in over the next few days but are insufficient to change a result.
So stop freaking out when you hear some election honcho say “counting will take X days after election day”. Of course it will. It largely always did. The difference is if the totals outstanding can’t move the result.
That should help!
RE: Minnesota will never be Red.
In 1984, Reagan won 49 of 50 states in a huge decisive landslide sweep.
Minnesota was the only state that went blue. Well, to be fair, Walter Mondale was a Minnesotan. But then, so is Tim Walz...
I seem to remember reading that Reagan didn’t campaign in Minnesota; he wanted Mondale to be able to win his home state.
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