Posted on 10/13/2024 8:11:20 AM PDT by lasereye
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump bolstered by Republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s rough debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as by a favorable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president.
These are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows Harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump.
“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
snip
In the new poll — which was conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%.
An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.
In September, however, Harris held a 6-point lead on this expanded ballot.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
More from the article:
Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%.
It shouldn’t be a “dead heat”.
Harris’ campaign should be dead and Trump’s campaign should be hot.
Good news, but let’s play like we’re behind. Get active with your local Trump campaign!
This is so crazy. Half the voters just lived through 4 years of the country swirling down the toilet, economically, culturally, socially and morally and are basically saying, ‘Oh yeah! Give me four more years of that!’
I guess those 50 years of socialist indoctrination through public schooling and the media brainwashing have really paid off.
If it’s really this close they’ll steal it........again
Kamaltoe won her debate, Biden won his debate and of course... Walz won his debate... What the Democrats need is another debate... And Trump’s medical records... Because apparently Kamala is in ‘perfect’ health... BTW - Did they release her psychiatric evaluation yet?
Who believes anything from NBC “News”??
At this point it’s all about turnout.
Registered voters, nationwide. Not very reliable, since it basically translates into a Trump landslide.
I believe their polls much more so than the Republican-friendly Rasmussen.
I had a recent conversation with a white female who clearly voiced her dislike/resentment of ‘white men’, and supported gleefully any kind of electoral outcome that goes against ‘white men’. I have come to the conclusion that the left is full of these kinds of hateful women.
If I were single and dating I would absolutely have nothing to do with any woman with that type of mindset and those types of hateful views. I wouldn’t even have a peripheral friendship with them. No one with those kinds of views can be trusted.
The trump momentum started after the vice presidential debate where jd Vance showed the world his competence and waltz his incompetence
Whatever happens in 2024 I look forward to Vance in 2028
We have some great young articulate republicans, the in your face type of republicans like jd Vance , Vivek , Desantis , tulsi
No more wimp republicans the type to be obliterated by the news media
It is all about turnout and harvesting the votes. We need to work hard and get our constituencies to vote - men, rural folks, and Christians.
Quite disgusting. Can you share in what context you had this conversation? Work or social?
Lies, damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain
> At this point it’s all about turnout.<
Not according to Obama. He said it’s all about poll numbers. He knows the cheat has to at least be believable.
EC
Seeing as this is an NBC News poll, this is good news for Trump. As others have said, the trend is towards Trump.
NBC has been pretty bad in the past. In 2020 the final NBC/WSJ poll had Biden +10. In 2016 NBC had Hillary +7 in their last poll before the election.
Here is why Trump is winning PA: Biden barely beat Trump in PA despite being “Scranton Joe,” being Irish-Catholic, and having strong union ties throughout the Commonwealth (also, Trump was having issues b/c of COVID). Now, name for me one demographic group that has moved towards Kamala? Men, working-class whites, blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Catholics, 18-29 voters, etc. have all substantially moved towards Trump. I will give her a slight increase with young women b/c of abortion. Accordingly, how does this translate into Kamala over-performing Biden in PA? Short answer: It does not. She will lose PA by 4 to 6 points. Same with Wisconsin. Michigan will be a 2 to 4 point Trump win.
If America wasn’t flooded with freeloading, deadbeat, illegal alien foreigners, President Trump would be looking at a landslide.
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