Posted on 10/09/2024 7:42:57 PM PDT by lasereye
Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election.
A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.
But plenty can change in the final weeks of campaigning.
And with Trump on a 58.8 percent of winning to Harris' 41.1 the result remains very much in tossup territory.
However, the latest polling data now suggest that Trump is on track to win 302 electoral college votes to Harris' 236, the most decisive lead yet.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners who crunches the numbers, said in his latest briefing note: 'Things continue to move against Harris—Trump's win probability has increased by another two points since last week.
'The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points.
'The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign.
'New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.'
The model weighs all the latest polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics to deliver each candidate's chances of winning in the electoral college.
Overall, it predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote.
At the same time, a string of recent polls have shown critical swing states edging towards the former president.
The most crucial of those may be a Mitchell Research and Communications poll for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris in a head-to-head match-up by one point.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Their model considers polling data combined with other data. I hope they know what they are doing!
The only swing states not in his favor at the moment are Nevada and Virginia. But it is within a point.
Assuming AZ, GA and NC don’t go haywire. Trump only needs one of WI, PA or MI. She can’t win without all 3.
If NV and VA are wobbling, then all 4 of Maine’s votes and NH can’t be far behind. NM after that
I’ll predict now that Trump wins NV (my state).
We definitely don’t want the Jamaican getting elected but it would be twice as bad if Tampon Tim got elected. That moron is nutz! The jackass wants to completely change the way we vote so they can steal more election even after the commie RATS have spent billions and billions importing foreign azhos to vote for them.
Wouldn’t it be sweet if Trmup won PA and MI? then it would be O-vah! (Not that any of the MSM would call PA or MI anytime before 1am.)
I remember hearing a while ago, that Pennsylvania does not expect to have results on election night. Reason being they not allowed to start counting mail in ballots until election day itself.
Of course, if Trump has a clear lead with ballots cast on election day that are counted, it might be possible for news organizations to call Pennsylvania that night.
Also depending what happens in other states, Pennsylvania not having results on election night may not make a difference.
Trump on a 58.8 percent of winning to Harris’ 41.1 the result remains very much in tossup territory.
That sentence doesn’t make sense.
IIRC Hillary was at 90% chance of winning or something like that going into the 2016 election. As the evening wore on the number kept shrinking and shrinking. It was a night to remember!
I remember it well. I also remember sending scads of pics of crying heartbroken leftists from the internet to all my friends the next day.
“...but it would be twice as bad if Tampon Tim got elected. That moron is nutz!”
It is puzzling that you are able to draw a distinction between the two. What is your criteria?
I notice that Harris is continuously running out the clock when responding to questons. For example, when someone asks her a question, she starts pulling her hair back, as an eighth-grader will do, to give herself time to figure out her lie. Such strength for the leader of the free world.
To borrow from Star Wars....coming soon....Episode III Return of the Donald
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