Posted on 09/13/2024 1:44:37 PM PDT by Angelino97
Vice President Kamala Harris saw a seven-point shift in her favor from betting odds after the hour and half debate against former President Donald Trump. While the race is still viewed as a toss-up, markets moved towards a greater probability of a Harris victory.
While elections may not have much of an impact on the broad markets, there are some segments of the market that are more sensitive to political outcomes. Investors generally think that a Trump victory would be negative for Oil prices due to more production. They also believe that a Harris victory would be better for companies that are supported by Biden era bills such as Inflation Reduction Act beneficiaries, renewable energy stocks and semiconductors (due to the CHIPS Act). As you can see in the chart below, Harris aligned assets delivered strong performance the day after the debate.
Green economy stocks (+4.1%) and renewables (+4.0%) outperformed, as did oil (+2.1%) (lower odds of increased supply put upward pressure on prices). Semiconductors (+4.4%) also outperformed. While the CHIPS Act provides tailwinds for semis, demand for chips and other key components in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are likely to increase despite either political party being elected. Indeed, Nvidia (+16%) roared back after falling -14% last week. Their CEO touted strong demand for their new Blackwell chips. In fact, customers are “tense” over the competition to get the most chips, fastest.
(Excerpt) Read more at chase.com ...
I stopped putting much stock in the betting markets when they all had Hillary at an 80% chance to win going into election night 2016. All the betting markets really reflect is the conventional wisdom as espoused by the liberal media. If ABC News says Kamala is ahead, people put their money on Kamala hoping to make a quick buck.
Anyone voting for commie Kamala is an idiot but Trump didn’t help his cause at the debate. Reagan’s demeanor was far superior for such doings.
Reagan was dealing with a Liberal media, Trump is dealing with a MARXIST one.
On the other hand, there was almost NO alternative media in the 1980’s.
Isn’t leftist Jamie Diamond the head of JP Morgan?
If it were stocks instead, I’d sell short.
The globalist cabal favors controlled markets and profits only for the uber wealthy!
Kamala: 50%
Trump: 49%.
More importantly, Polymarket shows gamblers picking Trump in Pennsylvania (+2%), North Carolina (+14%), Georgia (+16%), Arizona (+20%), Nevada (50%-50%).
Please Note...
Polymarket is polling Gambler Money - NOT Voters!
Polymarket link...
Just curious...
On election day 2016 , were you predicting that Trump would win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?
If not, what states were going to carry Trump to 270 Electoral Votes on your prediction?
I ignore the betting odds.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.