leans Repub. This election is way too close. Need to see some movement back to Trump. Most likely camel toe has peaked, but it’s still worrisome. Every single person attending a Trump rally should be registered at the rally to vote and information obtained to ballot harvest from them (where legal).
I’ve explained this a lot but people still say things making it clear they don’t understand.
First, 1000 LVs in 3 states will divide, approx 333 per state. That is a huge MOE. Sample size determines MOE and that 1000 number isn’t big. For example, 600 samples is 4.5% MOE.
Trump is not really Republican, as party stalwarts would envision. He is populist, and the establishment is terrified of this. The rank and file, no concerns about it. They like it. And if Republican, even more pleased.
We do not know Trafalgar’s turnout model.
And maybe this can best make things clear. Ask yourselves this: The polls are quoting several % gain for Harris since replacing Biden. Do you think this gain is from minds that changed?
Think about this.
The answer is no. Essentially no minds changed. The pollsters decided to change their turnout models. Theirs was the minds that changed. Now the expect more blacks to turnout. Now they expect more women to turnout.
Where would they come from? From those who otherwise would have stayed home.
And that thinking fails because there no longer need be any enthusiasm elevated to get people to drive to the polls. They Don’t Have To Leave Home. Enthusiasm is not going to elevate turnout above what it already was to be.