Frank Luntz says Kamala Harris is now the 2024 frontrunner

frank luntz ^ | 8/6/2024 | frank Luntz

[MagillaX]

I joined BBC Newsnight to talk about Kamala Harris picking Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, and what Donald Trump needs to do in order to pull out a victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

[vivenne]

Thanks. My comment was a little tongue in cheek because of their relationship.

[MayflowerMadam]

Yeah. That Luntz-McCarthy relationship is ... WEIRD!!

[vivenne]

; )

[cowboyusa]

Luntz knows about behinds.

[Bullish]

You’re nuts. I don’t listen to Luntz period.

[willk]

“It shows Harris leading Trump 51-46 nationally.”

Actually it shows Harris leading Trump 51-48.

[CFW]

“Actually it shows Harris leading Trump 51-48.”

---

LOL! Thanks for the correction.

[CFW]

I have a hard time believing that someone would switch from supporting Trump to voting for Harris. It doesn’t make sense.

[FreedBird]

When Harris speaks without notes, it is hard to understand what she is talking about.

[BroJoeK]

DaujghterofEve: "Please share any up-to-date sources you find reliable. "

Every day there are new polls and new predictions -- some more Republican leaning, some more Democrat -- but they pretty much all come down to the 10 or so "swing states".
At the height of Trump-euphoria after the RNC, some polls had Trump winning not only those swing states but some previously considered likely blue-Democrat wins, including Virginia, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New Mexico and even Minnesota.
Doubtless that helped convinced Biden to submit to the palace-coup and switcheroo to Harris.

Now we are into a "Harris sugar high", claimed to last through the DNC in two weeks.
Now nearly all of the likely Democrat states are reported as returning to Harris and some of the swing states too.

But some of the reports seem odd as heck -- one showed Arizona flipping blue while Virginia goes red!
Some say Trump still wins all of the "Northern Blue Wall" (PA, MI, WI) while others say Harris wins some or all.
Given that, it could even come down to Nebraska's Omaha district, which some say is solid blue but others say no, it's going red this time.
Think about that -- maybe 100 voters in Omaha pick the next president! So nothing is certain, take nothing for granted.
Republicans have to work like they (we) are behind and have a good chance to catch up.
Anything else will deliver a loss in November, imho.

DaujghterofEve: "I enjoyed reading your profile. :)"

Thanks! I wrote that when I first signed up in 2004 and have not changed a word of it since.
Now it's a little out of date -- I'm 20 years older and last year moved to eastern PA, nearer my grown daughters, one of whom, coincidentally, is named Eve. ;-)

And a few years ago I changed my tag-line to now refer to DDG-134, named after a personal hero of mine.
It is currently reported as cutting metal at Bath Iron Works in Maine, no keel-laying ceremony yet scheduled, that I know of.

[BroJoeK]

CFW: "You are correct.
They gave that same advice to both McCain and Romney and when you look at the list of U.S. Presidents, neither name is on that list."

Exactly! I wouldn't pretend to give Trump advice, but personally love when he goes high-risk with potential high-rewards, such as:

1. Interviewing black journalists had some Republican bitties wetting their pants -- oh my goodness, you can't say such things!
   But did you notice, the black audience loved it!
   They well know they're being gaslighted by Dems and love someone who'll tell it straight.

2. Massively attacking GA Gov. Kemp! That even had me a little wet -- WTF! Why cannibalize our own?
   But the key there is Trump's words that Kemp is a "bad man", meaning, I suspect, that Kemp sold out to the Democrats' vote stealing, and will do so again in 2024?
   So I'm guessing Trump thinks he has no choice because he'd lose GA to vote-stealing anyway.
   And perhaps Trump still hopes to advance David Perdue in GA politics?

   The point is to encourage MAGA even when it's opposed by RINOs -- at least that's how I see it.

It's a tough call -- if Trump loses GA and therefore the election, people will say: it's because he insanely attacked Gov. Kemp.
The Trump response, I'd think, could be: no, Kemp was going to corruptly throw the election anyway, and now at least we have a MAGA resistance capable of resurrecting the party after its defeat.

Was there some connection between Kemp and Fannie Willis?

I don't know, but for sure Trump is taking very high risks with hopefully big pay-offs, and I'm fine with that, even knowing some of those risks could blow up in his face.

As a certain Mr. Dooley said in 1895: "Politics ain't beanbag...".

[CFW]

“But the key there is Trump’s words that Kemp is a “bad man”, meaning, I suspect, that Kemp sold out to the Democrats’ vote stealing, and will do so again in 2024?”

—

I suspect Trump knows more about Georgia and the 2020 election that even we do (and we here have paid close attention). I believe Trump was putting Kemp on notice that he will be watching what happens in Georgia in November. Kemp’s office today was served with a copy of an Amicus brief setting out the evidence of proven fraud from the 2020 election. Georgia will be closely watched in November. Especially in Fulton County.

[MinorityRepublican]

I suspect Trump knows more about Georgia and the 2020 election that even we do (and we here have paid close attention). I believe Trump was putting Kemp on notice that he will be watching what happens in Georgia in November.

My focus is on winning this November and saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats - not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans, or dwelling on the past.

You should do the same, Mr. President, and leave my family out of it. pic.twitter.com/m8y6CSuZKY— Brian Kemp (@BrianKempGA) August 3, 2024

I thought the tweet was odd. Most politicians will ignore Trump if theyre in that particular situation. Unless they're hiding something?

[BroJoeK]

CFW: "I suspect Trump knows more about Georgia and the 2020 election that even we do..."

I wouldn't claim any special knowledge of Georgia, only what you can see on news reports -- for example, I can't tell you the difference between David Perdue and Sonny Perdue. ;-)
What's obvious is that Kemp & Trump don't get along, for reasons which are not clear and with the risk of losing Georgia again in 2024.
In a very close election, which right now seems the case, that could make Georgia the deciding state.
So, the risks from splitting Georgia's Republican party would seem huge, and the benefits are?

I have to assume Trump believes Kemp will sell-out to the Democrats again in 2024 and so, if Trump does not challenge Kemp, Trump will lose Georgia anyway, regardless of what the polls today say.
In other words, there's no real downside risk for Trump here, only upside opportunities.

Why not just cut a deal and make-up, at least until after the election?
My guess is Trump doesn't trust Kemp to keep his side of any bargain and wants to make certain serious Republicans are guarding election integrity.

Anyway, that's the only thing which makes any sense to me.

MinorityRepublican #73: "I thought the tweet [from Kemp] was odd.
Most politicians will ignore Trump if theyre in that particular situation.
Unless they're hiding something?"

Seems obvious to me there's a lot more going on here than is known publicly.

By the way... history buffs like me are not at all surprised to see Georgians elect leaders who "don't play well with" their national leaders.
We remember that Gov. Brown didn't get along with Pres. Davis, and in 1882 Georgians even elected former CSA VP, Democrat Alexander Stephens as their governor!

My own state of Pennsylvania has also been pretty rebellious, on occasion, so we are accustomed to some drama.

Still, it would be a crying shame if all this huffing and puffing cost Pres. Trump a historic election that he so well deserves, and we so desperately need him to win.