Trump doesn’t need a substantive running-mate to win.
But, it would help if he picked someone who could immediately succeed him as POTUS after his term is up!
Yet Trump says this is his second criteria.
And I do think it matters.
If it is Biden/Harris, maybe not so much as it is simply a grudge match between the two and Biden loses.
If it is Harris and someone else, I think Trump needs a woman to help counter. ESPECIALLY if Harris were to pick Whitmer. Two men vs two women would be horrible optics.
And Harris cannot pick Newsome as they are both from California.
And if Democrats skip Harris, all bets off.