Correct.
I really think that if Vlad had just stuck to threatening in Feb 2022, he would have have:
1. Got the Donbas without a shot
2. Got a pliant Ukrainian government in a year or so (see Georgia)
3. Kept Muscowite prestige
4. Kept Germany etc. hooked on Muscowite oil and natural gas and doing nothing
5. Been able to concentrate on his south
That's what I expected after he setup those two "republics" in the East. He virtually annexed them like Ukraine. He could have moved on with incrementalism, and referendums and chipped away at Zelenskyy's power base until the regime was changed. But he went the other way.