(Gaza) Update, JUNE 17, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 17 that it has dismantled about half of Hamas’ forces in Rafah. The IDF 162nd Division advanced into Rafah on May 7 and the IDF said that it now controls approximately 60 to 70 percent of the governorate, including the Egypt-Gaza Strip border.

The IDF assesses that it has almost completely “dismantled” two of four battalions in Hamas’ Rafah Brigade and that IDF units have “somewhat degraded” the other two battalions. An Israeli media correspondent estimated that Israel will take “several more weeks” to completely “dismantle” Hamas’ Rafah Brigade. Israeli forces have also located 200 tunnel openings, 25 of which led to tunnels that reach the border with Egypt. The IDF said that its forces have killed at least 550 Palestinian fighters in Rafah since the start of ground operations. Twenty-two 162nd Division soldiers have died during fighting in Rafah.

An Israeli Army Radio correspondent said that the IDF will shift to a “targeted raid” approach in the whole of the Gaza Strip after the end of the Rafah operation.

With Israeli control of the Philadelpi Corridor along the border with Egypt, Hamas is now cordoned off from resupply or retreat - their only options being to die fighting, or go undercover to regroup later. So the phase of "Whack-a-mole" (targeted raids) is taking over, where the IDF pounds down reformed Hamas units in previously cleared areas, as they stick their heads back up. This could potentially require a long period of Israeli Military occupation and control of the Strip, potentially with a lot of house to house urban operations, unless new political governance is established in Gaza.

ISW goes on to assess:

"Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip have already shifted to this approach to target reconstituting Hamas units.

Hamas’ Rafah Brigade will likely survive with sufficient assets to reconstitute itself, given the time and space to reconstitute. Successful reconstitution requires a commander to disengage their force from combat. An Israeli war correspondent said that an unspecified number of Hamas fighters left the Rafah area when Israeli forces first entered Rafah.

This cadre of surviving Hamas fighters assigned to the Rafah Brigade could provide Hamas commanders in Rafah sufficient human capital to rebuild the Rafah Brigade over time absent sustained Israeli military pressure against the Rafah Brigade.

The IDF has discovered large numbers of Hamas fighters in previously uncleared areas during other operations (so it seems to be Hamas' mode of operating). Israeli forces found that three battalions—not the expected one battalion—had withdrawn into a previously uncleared area of Jabalia prior to early May, for example."

IDF controls the Philadelphi Corridor to cut off Hamas military resupply through Egypt, and is reducing the last two standing Hamas Battalions in Rafah.

We seem to be just weeks away from the end of Hamas as a standing military, and its return to being an undercover terrorist organization - a significant new phase of the conflict.

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