Breaking: Nigel Farage's Reform Party just 2 points behind the Conservatives!

X ^ | June 5 | @benrileysmith

[RandFan]

@benrileysmith

Breaking: New poll has Reform within **two points** of the Tories after Nigel Farage's return.

Tories 19%

Reform 17%

Via Sky

[Reily]

He never would have gotten a new party off the ground. Too many obstacles on a state by state basis. Far far easier to take over a “going concern” - a hostile takeover. He’s done that! Unfortunately such a thing can’t be instaneous. The “Old Bulls” have to go and that’s happening. Again these things aren’t instaneous there’s local institutional lethargy that has to be overcome. Again it’s happening!

[Dr. Sivana]

a hostile takeover. He’s done that! Unfortunately such a thing can’t be instaneous. The “Old Bulls” have to go and that’s happening. Again these things aren’t instaneous there’s local institutional lethargy that has to be overcome. Again it’s happening!

Correct. Look how the hippies took over the party of Sam Erwin , Lester Maddox, William Proxmire, Scoop Jackson.

[buwaya]

No, there are other parties besides, that can cause significant vote splits.

The Liberal Democrats - what is left of the ancient Liberal (Whig) party.

The Scottish Nationalists, which usually exclude the Scottish part of the Labour vote. Maybe not this year, who knows.

Northern Irish Unionists and other Irish parties.

And a few others that routinely get seats.

Because of the first past the post rule and the multiplicity of parties, the vote share does not translate into seats. A split vote means that quite a small proportion of votes can control Parliament, as Labour is very likely to do with a minority of votes.

[Captain Jack Aubrey]

It just means that labor will win bigger.

[tennmountainman]

Go Nigel! Storm the Polls.

[sinsofsolarempirefan]

They probably won’t get wiped out but it is going to be a very bad day for the Tories, no doubt. Reform’s problem is that their support is spread out more evenly across the country rather than concentrated in key constituencies like it is for the Tories and Labour.

However, when the dam breaks, it breaks. I think what could happen is Farage wins Clacton, and Reform get a few seats elsewhere, and this will convince more people that it is worth voting Reform, and Labour are going to screw things up really, really badly in Government. Whatever happens, I think Reform could well destroy the Tories, not in this election, but the one after.