How close are we getting to a shooting CWII?
Not very.
The Civil War happened because the Army divided in two and the chain of command broke down.
Civil conflict like the Pottawatomie massacre or the Raid on Harper's Ferry are possible, but nothing has happened - yet - that could cause division in the chain of command or fracturing of the armed forces.
I think the regime is quite confident about this, and I believe they are right to be confident.
Any more mass demonstrations on behalf of Trump will be suppressed by the military, with the deaths of most or all of the demonstrators.