There may be less babies per 1000 people, but people are living longer and are healthier for longer
Even with the low fertility scenario it doesn't look like it would drop below 7 billion
Posted on 05/28/2024 10:27:53 PM PDT by Cronos
Human societies used to have roughly stable populations, with high mortality matched by high fertility. In England and Wales in the 18th and 19th centuries, death rates plummeted. But fertility did not. The result was a population explosion, until, at last, fertility rates also collapsed
As the benefits of economic growth and advances in medicine and public health spread, most of the world has followed a similar transition, but far faster. As a result, human numbers rose fourfold over the last hundred years, from 2bn to 8bn. In time, however, fertility followed mortality. The result has been plummeting fertility rates (births per woman) across most of the world. According to a study recently published in The Lancet, “Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level.” For the world as a whole, the fertility rate was 2.3 in 2021, barely above replacement, down from 4.7 in 1960. For high-income countries the fertility rate was a mere 1.6, down from 3 in 1960. In general, poor countries still have higher fertility rates than richer ones, but they have been falling there, too. (See charts.)
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
There may be less babies per 1000 people, but people are living longer and are healthier for longer
Even with the low fertility scenario it doesn't look like it would drop below 7 billion
I think an issue is that a lot of young people today just don’t want children.
It’s hard to have a hedonistic Carefree lifestyle if you have children.
The age of first marriage has been steadily going up. So when people finally do settle down and get married , they will end up having fewer children than they would have otherwise, even if they do eventually have children.
Children are a lot of work , and people don’t want to put in the time and effort involved in having a family nowadays. How can our culture change those attitudes?
| Parameter | North Korea | South Korea |
| Population in 2022 | 26 million | 52 million |
| Population in 1960 | 11 million | 25 million |
| Life expectancy | 73 years | 83 years |
| birth rate | 1.81 | 0.81 |
It’s also that raising children is harder now.
in addition to numerous school etc rules - when you were young, if you were 8 or 9 you went to school by yourself and may have been left at home alone at times by yourself or with your siblings. If a 12 year old walks to school today, the parents would be arrested for negligence.
In addition there is far more “hands on parenting” than in the pre-1990s
“...raising children is harder now....”
Just look at the democrat cannibals. They plant their feral seed into their women and immediately disappear into the hood, while having the crack junkie mother dump the kid on society. It’s a never ending cycle, among democrats.
Millions and millions of children raised without a father. And this is what they call progress. /spit
Any discussion of “population explosion” must include some kind of analysis of how many people the planet can actually hold. Remember they all have to go to the bathroom every day. It is not about land area as EC commented, rather it is about rainfall. The discussion has always been poisoned by leftist propaganda, so it is natural to recoil from the subject, but I still wonder.
“...plummeting fertility rates (births per woman)...”
Anyway, perhaps the most profound invention/development in human history is the development and distribution of the birth-control pill.
i don’t believe in subsidies., but I believe in reducing the tax burden so that the elites and the wealthy will want to have more children. The poors will then attempt to mimic the elites in order to gain social status and then the poors will have more children as well.
And that is how you change the culture with money.
the Earth can hold trillions of people because more people leads to greater economic growth. Economies and scale are created and labor specialization is increased, and this all leads to more human ingenuity, the greatest factor contributing to human flourishing.
South Korea has an even bigger problem. Look at their male to female ratios in their population pyramid. They’ve obviously been doing sex selective abortions just like China and they now have fewer women than men in every age category until 50+ when women enter menopause.
Even if they fixed their stupid economic policies, it won’t solve the problem of feminine scarcity.
Holy cow. That’s quite a difference. Thank you!
Greetings impimp!
Thanks for the reply!
I do not agree with you though, because My thinking is influenced by the complex of factors that contribute to mass death.
I read the Bible this way. I believe it is true that the plagues pestilences famines and wars of history were sent by God as He says, but that does not preclude the natural factors and forces, which we can describe, that brought those calamities about. I can see them in the background details of the stories in the Old Testament.
You will understand that there is a limit on the rainfall in
habitable areas. That is the definition of desert. So, what you are suggesting is that every habitable area will work like say major cities in Japan. But the way those cities work depends on the rest of the world.
Even if you work out the waste treatment issues, you have to still work out the issues in irrigation, desalinization, and nutrition supporting your grain-based farming system. I think we could imagine how certain cities could double their populations until the next drought, but beyond that I don’t know how you do it.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell? I hope this year’s snow melt will make this situation better than it was last year, but we are talking 40 million people and several million acres of farmland. We have populated a desert area at a time when rainfall was at an unusual high. As it reverts to normal low rainfall levels, we must make arrangements for people to move! I hope I wish we will have even more rain and more rain in the southwest. Maybe?
You need to study the writings of Julian Simon…you need to learn that the most powerful and important resource is people and not trees, rubber or steel…for it is with the ingenuity of people that humanity thrives
because of human ingenuity three things happen when a natural resource is depleted:
1. conservation occurs
2. extraction methods improve
3. substitute products are found
this process ensures that as long as the sun provides energy to our planet, and God will’s our existence, humanity will thrive no matter how many billions or trillions of people are on earth
Thanks but you forgot water.
Before I go reading that does he understand about water?
Got other things but I will look at that.
I think I understand the idea though.
Seems to be a faith position about both irrigation and desalination.
Thanks for the response!
BrianD
the toilet water in my house, filled with fecal matter and urine, is sent, via a lift station, to a water treatment facility. Through various processes the feces and urine is removed and the processed water is sent to a water tank. Gravity then allows this water to go to the tap in my kitchen sink, where I drink it unfiltered.
Every day I drink unfiltered water, a certain percentage of which is processed urine and feces…
I say all of that to let you know what little respect I have for the argument that mankind is, or will have, a water shortage.
“And they still won’t admit that the Covid ‘vaccine’ contributes to a baby bust unlike any other.”
That’s related to the fact that they aren’t crackpots who believe that “the Covid virus doesn’t exist”. And that the “real cause of Covid” was “poison fake vaccines” given out before the pandemic.
That was about the stupidest idea that the frauds at the Daily Expose ever cooked up, right? I mean what kind of fools would believe that garbage. Maybe paranoid schizophrenics who can’t tell hallucination from reality. Go figure.
Which is truly a shame because the Korean female is (one of) God’s gifts to mankind.
Well, if you don’t already have one, you probably won’t be able to get one because Korea did a very dumb thing and now there is a shortage.
California has chronic water shortages because the government is in charge of the water supply.
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