Biden edges ahead of Trump as nearly 20% of voters say their choice might change: poll

The New York Post ^ | 05/23/2024 | Chris Nesi

[thegagline]

President Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a statistical tie as they gear up for the first of two scheduled debates next month, but nearly one-fifth of voters say they could still change their mind about for whom they ultimately pull the lever.

In a one-on-one matchup, Biden garnered 48% support to Trump’s 47%, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters released Wednesday.

Last month, the survey found Trump and Biden in a flat-footed tie, with each receiving 46% support.

Despite the incumbent’s lead, history suggests the margin would be tight enough for Trump to secure victory in the Electoral College. In 2016, the Republican lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.1%, but racked up 304 electoral votes to become the 45th president.

The poll also indicates that third-party candidates might take a bigger bite out of Trump than Biden.

With independent and Green Party candidates in the polling mix, Biden slips to 41% — a decrease of seven points — while Trump’s support falls to just 38%, a nine-point decline.

In a five-way matchup, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. scoops up 14% support***

Among polled voters in the five-person race, 19% said it was either very likely (3%) or somewhat likely (16%) that they might change their mind about who to support before the election.

However, Trump held a distinct advantage among that cohort.

Just 8% of supporters of the 45th president said they were somewhat likely to change their minds with none saying they were “very likely” to switch, while 15% of Biden backers said a switch was either very likely (3%) or somewhat likely (12%).

***

[Glad2bnuts]

Bwah ha ha ha ha ha. Total BS.

[Sam Gamgee]

Trump needs +20 to overcome the ballot harvesting and drop boxes.

[TexasGator]

“Polling only likely voters would boost Biden. Biden’s voters are higher income and more educated than Trump’s.”

History shows going from registered to likely in the polls moves the results to the R side.

[lasereye]

History shows going from registered to likely in the polls moves the results to the R side.

Yes that's because in the past the higher income and educated voters were mostly Republicans. That's not true any more. We live in a world of change.

[TexasGator]

“Yes that’s because in the past the higher income and educated voters were mostly Republicans. That’s not true any more. We live in a world of change.”

History shows that you just made that up!

[MinorityRepublican]

Yes that's because in the past the higher income and educated voters were mostly Republicans. That's not true any more. We live in a world of change.

Correct. The Democratic Party is represented by the Wealthy Liberal Elite and the Underclass who takes benefits.

[lasereye]

I didn’t make anything up.

[TexasGator]

“I didn’t make anything up.”

Yes you did.

[Republican Wildcat]

The fact that Trump and Biden are in a dead heat, speaks volumes about the public’s perception of the respective candidates

Biden has had a full media campaign already going and will have it going through the end of the election cycle. He is and has been flush with cash. This isn't even counting he fact virtually the entirety of the media is on his side and against Trump. When you are able to control the narrative from start to finish, you will be competitive, and obviously, that shapes the perception of the voting public to a significant degree. They also have a superior ground game in both funding and organization. That also has an impact.

[lasereye]

In 2022, voters with a college degree or more education favored Democratic candidates while those with no college degree preferred Republicans – continuing a long-standing trend in polarization among American voters by education.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/

If you have something that contradicts that please provide it.

[TexasGator]

Non-responsive. Here is your latest below. 2022 is not in the past. For reference, Hillary beat Trump in those categories.

“Yes that’s because in the past the higher income and educated voters were mostly Republicans. That’s not true any more. We live in a world of change.”

[lasereye]

2022 is not in the past.

I am making two claims.

1. That more educated voters used to vote Republican.
2. They now tend to vote Democrat.

My point about the 2022 election is related to the second point. I was thinking you didn't believe point number 2.

Hillary beat Trump in those categories.

That doesn't dispute my claim. It confirms it. Is that supposed to disprove point #1? That was a recent election. The idea that likely voters tend to vote more Republican compared to registered voters was true decades ago.