Posted on 05/02/2024 10:48:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden.
Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.
According to the Daily Mail:
A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.
He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If it were an election, Trumps is the obvious winner. It won’t be that way since same-day voting with voter ID is not required. When we moved from NC to CA, we could have filled in mail-in ballots for both states.
I also think he will “win” the election… the same way he “won” it last time.
I think there’s enough votes from women to keep it close. Then fraud will seal the deal for Joe.
Yes, I was about to post that.
Popular vote <> Electoral vote
All 13 are actually a negative for Bidan. He is reading them as a yes or no instead of positive or negative effect.
:NeverTrumpin':
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.