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Is China Rethinking its Invasion of Taiwan?
American Thinker ^ | 04/27/2024 | Mike Phelps

Posted on 04/27/2024 9:04:00 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

When Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of U.S. naval operations, gave an interview in 2022, he made a point of saying he believed China could invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. As of the last week of April 2024, China has not invaded Taiwan. Does this mean that Taiwan and the international community can breathe a collective sigh of relief? Maybe. A compelling case can be made that if China does intend to take Taiwan, then the period between now and January 2025 is as favorable a time as it is likely to have over the near term.

There is an array of measures China could employ in a runup to an invasion of Taiwan. These include disrupting the U.S. military’s ability to intervene by destroying command and control satellites as well as severing key undersea fiber optics cables. Wouldn’t these actions demand a vigorous U.S. response? This is exactly what China must avoid if it’s to take Taiwan. Experts have been wargaming various scenarios for years and the consensus seems to be that if the U.S. intervenes quickly it will thwart China’s invasion, but there would be heavy casualties on both sides.

Xi Jing Ping and his regime must be weighing the probabilities of a Biden versus a Trump victory in November because the outcome would be a significant variable in their calculus.

China's best opportunity to invade Taiwan in the short term without meaningful U.S. intervention seems to be between now and January 2025 might be a valid conclusion. However, China likes to play the long game so its timetable might not match up at all with conventional wisdom. China's true intentions remain opaque.

Perhaps Xi has decided that an invasion of Taiwan is too risky -- at least in the short term.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: China; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Taiwan
KEYWORDS: china; invasion; peachynevertrumpamus; scared; scaredofbiden; taiwan
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To: SeekAndFind
The CCP want to re-assimilate Taiwan not destroy it.

I expect it will happen soon without a shot. Some sort of deal made in private and then announced.

The CCP are authoritarian and often quite brutal, but they don't appear to have the rule-or-ruin mentality common in the West these days.

41 posted on 04/28/2024 6:39:54 AM PDT by Salman (It's not a slippery slope if it was part of the program all along. )
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To: Poison Pill
Trump and his base are isolationist. China can see that. Look no further than the posts here.

That is a poorly reasoned and incredibly naive conclusion that you have reached.

42 posted on 04/28/2024 7:10:28 AM PDT by Colorado Doug (Now I know how the Indians felt to be sold out for a few beads and trinkets)
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To: SeekAndFind

China is having so many problems on so many fronts, they don’t have time to play war right now.


43 posted on 04/28/2024 7:12:44 AM PDT by Tom Tetroxide
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To: yuleeyahoo

RE: China will take Taiwan the same way they took Macau and Hong Kong.

Errr… nope. Hongkong and Macau do not have armed militaries and citizens trained to use military weapons.


44 posted on 04/28/2024 7:18:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If I were China I would look at what is happening in Ukraine. They might just be underestimating Taiwan’s ability to defend themselves just like Russia. They can also look at the boycotts which would be devastating to China since they do not produce much in the way of raw materials. Also, the determination of the rest of the world to defend those being attacked by major powers. Of course if Ukraine looses that might be off.


45 posted on 04/28/2024 7:45:24 AM PDT by amnestynone (We are asked by people who do not tolerate us to tolerate the intolerable in the name of tolerance.)
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To: SeekAndFind

It is of no real national interest for mainland China to invade and take over Taiwan. It is 100% simply a political interest on the part of the CCP.

It is the CCP, the dictatorship in mainland China, that was, is, and remains the reason Taiwan is fiercely indedent. Were mainlaind China a true multiparty democracy without the dictatorship of the CCP, the folks on Taiwan and the mainland would have long ago decided a mutual peaceful agreement ending the fracture from the civil war. But asking the democratic people of Taiwan to submit to the dictatorship of the CCP would never have been part of that.


46 posted on 04/28/2024 7:49:11 AM PDT by Wuli ( )
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To: kiryandil
what President Trump is useful for.

Creating more debt in 4 years that Obama did in 8.

Shutting down most of the economy and killing millions of small businesses while empowering people like Fauci.

Creating 2/3 of the inflation we have now by pushing trillions of dollars into the system

Destroying supply chains with stupid tariffs

47 posted on 04/28/2024 8:08:06 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: Poison Pill
Something that NeverTrump scum would post.

The American color revolution of 2020 never happened.

It was all Orange Man Bad.

48 posted on 04/28/2024 8:15:37 AM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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To: kiryandil

As usual, no attempt to refute points because they can’t be refuted. Everything listed happened prior to 2020. Trump isn’t bad, he’s just not up to the job.


49 posted on 04/28/2024 8:23:01 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: Poison Pill
It pleases me that you disappeared from Free Republic for eight months in 2016 - not even stopping in to celebrate the great victory over Cankles and The Democrat Cheat Machine of 2016.

You'll probably go into a similar snit when the Ukraine Project implodes presently.

It must be tough to be constantly wrong about stuff on a public forum, where people can look up your old posts, and laugh about them.   

What Burshtyn thermal power plant and Kryvyi Rih thermal power plant doink?

50 posted on 04/28/2024 8:32:58 AM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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To: kiryandil

The Trump-Biden presidencies have been a disaster just on inflation alone. I’m not looking forward to round 3, but we’re probably going to get it.


51 posted on 04/28/2024 8:44:33 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: SeekAndFind

China will never invade ... the social cost is not worth it and may cause the downfall of the CCP.


52 posted on 04/28/2024 8:54:25 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

They’ll simply buy out Taiwan.


53 posted on 04/28/2024 8:55:17 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Poison Pill
The Trump-Biden presidencies have been a disaster just on inflation alone. I’m not looking forward to round 3, but we’re probably going to get it.

Oh, look - a post where you're not wrong!

To be fair, though - the Trump inflation was the price America had to pay for the Deep State's color revolution.

Those cities weren't going to burn themselves, nor was Big Pharma going to pay itself for helping torpedo the Orange Man.

54 posted on 04/28/2024 8:56:59 AM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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To: SeekAndFind

China doesn’t need to invade Tiawan, they just need to take it from within just like they are doing to the us, with over 20K young Chicoms across our boarder.


55 posted on 04/28/2024 9:40:57 AM PDT by Rappini ("No man is entitled to the blessings of freedom unless he be vigilant in it's preservation" MacArthr)
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To: Poison Pill

Wrong.


56 posted on 04/28/2024 9:44:20 AM PDT by Lazamataz (To anyone who also wants to see the Bot "marcusmaximus" banned, contact me by Freepmail. )
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To: Lazamataz
Wrong

How many of the 3 direct monetary stimulus bills did Trump sign?

57 posted on 04/28/2024 9:57:16 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: kiryandil
the Trump inflation

And the Trump debt....

Hate to break this to you, but Trump is part of the "Deep State" too.

58 posted on 04/28/2024 10:00:51 AM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: Poison Pill

You’re wrong.


59 posted on 04/28/2024 10:16:42 AM PDT by Lazamataz (To anyone who also wants to see the Bot "marcusmaximus" banned, contact me by Freepmail. )
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To: Poison Pill
Hate to break this to you, but Trump is part of the "Deep State" too.

Which is why the Deep State is trying to put him in prison, and bankrupt him and his family.

Wrong again, as is your usual way.

60 posted on 04/28/2024 11:33:48 AM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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