Nah-
If we’re going to speculate:
NATO wants to expand just like everyone else does.
Our influence in Europe is largely through security policy and NATO, the idea of the EU expanding without NATO is unappealing to us.
Ukraine “was” an emerging economy and the oligarchs that really run the political show in the West as well as own the MSM wanted Ukraine in NATO and the EU. It’s an insurance policy.
Biden, damaged from the disaster in Afghanistan would have been a hero had this worked out for him. And it was a gamble without a direct cost to him even if war ensues since then it’s “Putin’s fault.”
Finally, even if the gamble fails, it’s still a strategic win for us since we are depleting Russia and have been scrambling to seize what is in the Russian sphere of influence for years: Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria (2014), Venezuela (2020). Literally, every major US oil exec had a jet in Libya before Kadafi’s body even cooled off.
If we’re gonna speculate, we simply gambled and lost, and what we didn’t figure on is how this conflict would galvanize a China-Russia relationship, grow BRICS, upset oil production and prices and drive a wedge between us and Saudi Arabia (one of those democratic, human rights respecting nations we back / sarc)...
We’re not forced to be there because of some self defense argument, nor obligation/promise, we want to be there because it benefited certain political and economic interests.
Not really. If Russia wins the war, it will show the world that Russia stood up to USA and won.
It will be the end of USA's status as a superpower.