Posted on 04/10/2024 7:29:28 PM PDT by lasereye
The Biden re-election campaign should be dead in the water. Inflation is surging again, wokeness is deeply unpopular with most Americans, bills are beginning to come due for the Left’s “green” initiatives, and, most of all, Biden himself is so far gone in dementia as to be dysfunctional. How can he possibly win in November?
By running on abortion. We saw it in many areas of the country in 2022. What should have been a red wave petered out, as the Democrats grabbed the lifeline that Dobbs gave them and often rode it to victory. Can it happen again in 2024? Why not?
In many areas of the country, including Minnesota, where I live, the most popular thing a politician can stand for is unrestricted (and preferably government-funded) abortion, up to and including the moment of birth. The Democrats have successfully sold the idea that they aren’t necessarily in favor of abortions, but the right to get abortions is the civil rights issue of our era. Just because it’s dumb doesn’t mean it can’t work.
The Democrats know they have an electoral gold mine in abortion. This is what the New York Times had to say in this morning’s email:
No American president has done as much to restrict abortion as Donald Trump. When he was running in 2016, he promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and his three nominees helped do precisely that in the 2022 Dobbs decision.
That is the Democrats’ line. Trump himself is a moderate on the issue, and Dobbs didn’t restrict abortion, it merely returned the issue to the states, where it belongs and where it always was until the bizarre Roe decision. But there is no room for nuance on this topic. Pro-abortion voters are fanatical and single-issue.
Twenty-one states have since enacted tight restrictions. Yesterday, Arizona’s highest court reinstated an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions.
These laws have proven to be unpopular. When abortion access has appeared on the ballot since 2022, it has consistently won, even in red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. A Wall Street Journal poll last month found that abortion stood out from immigration, inflation and foreign wars as the only major issue on which most voters trusted President Biden more than Trump.
The Times is right. Abortion has become electoral poison for Republicans. It is the only winning issue for Democrats, and they have no choice but to play it to the hilt.
All of this helps explains why Trump has tried to reduce his vulnerability on the issue — and why the Biden campaign is already running advertisements about abortion. “Donald Trump did this,” reads the onscreen text at the end of an ad released this week. It focuses on a Texas woman who nearly died during a miscarriage after a hospital refused to treat her.
This is the ad:
I don’t understand the alleged medical history. Obviously this woman could and would be treated if she suffered a miscarriage. But if you don’t think this ad, and many more like it to come, are devastating to Republicans, you are delusional.
The Times goes on to point out that Gallup has found a ten-point swing in favor of abortion since Dobbs. The irony is that a large majority of voters don’t support the Democrats’ position of unrestricted abortion up to the moment of birth (and in some cases, as in Minnesota, beyond). But they don’t hate Democrats for being extreme, they hate Republicans for restricting “choice.”
If you are looking for optimism, the Times offers this:
In the 2022 midterms, several high-profile Democratic candidates highlighted their Republican opponents’ role in restricting abortion access. Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O’Rourke in Texas were among them. So was Nan Whaley, the Democratic candidate for governor in Ohio. “We think it is the issue,” Whaley said.
It wasn’t. These candidates all lost by substantial margins. Nationwide, not a single Republican governor or senator has lost a re-election bid since the Dobbs decision. In House elections, the decision may have played a decisive role in a small number of races.
So abortion wasn’t enough to elect lousy candidates in red states. But in 2022, we saw what it could do in a purplish (not deep blue as some mistakenly think) state like Minnesota: it completely changed the election dynamic.
Arizona is another purple state. The most recent development on the abortion front is that Arizona’s Supreme Court issued a decision that resurrected a 160-year-old law, dating to when Arizona was a territory, that banned nearly all abortions. The Court somehow found that the old law takes precedence over the moderate statute that Arizona enacted in 2022.
I haven’t read that decision, but offhand I have no idea how a 160-year-old territorial law could possibly override an inconsistent law passed two years ago. That would seem to violate basic legal principles. In any event, if its Supreme Court somehow makes Arizona a no-abortion state, there is zero chance that Trump will carry Arizona in November. None.
Brace yourselves: the Democrats have an enormous amount of money to spend, and it is going to be all abortion, all the time, from now until November.
But who the hell wants to be the Governor of Hell?
Who the hell wants to be an apostle of Hell?
Luke 17:32
Remember Lot's wife
But if you really just can't beat em, go join em! Lots of more hellish things than losing an election can happen.
Slavery was a states’ issue, and the Dredd court endorsed that. And there was a civil war on the issue.
Abortion was for decades a federal issue, and the Dobbs court reversed that and made it a states’ issue. I don’t think either way a civil war can be avoided.
Both slavery and abortion are predicated on the existential question, who is and is not a human being, can be avoided. Neither states nor the federal government have any solutions to the dilemma. But unlike slavery, fetuses can’t run off to a state where they’re allowed to live and be free. But the putative mommy can run off to a state where she’s allowed to kill the little darling.
Neither the states nor the federal government can avoid the fact that that existential question should not even occur to anyone. Society has become sick. Abortion is just a symptom of a deeper sickness.
Good question. And the answer is hell no.
Dems winning on abortion
President Trump is taking that issue away
That’s right, but there is a paradoxical element complicating the abortion issue:
To save unborn babies, pro lifers need to win in politics.
But winning in politics requires strategy.
Strategy involves sacrifice, for example sacrificing a pawn to win in chess.
But the debate over abortion involves unborn human babies, not pawns.
Ironically, the refusal of pro-lifers to accept strategic sacrifice means they will not win, and therefore more lives will be lost.
The answer of course, is for pro-life candidates to advocate the lowest number of weeks during which abortion is permitted - and still win their elections. Advocating too strict a ban and letting the Democrat win will not save a single life.
More lives will be saved if pro-life candidates play it smart and win their elections.
Stand for LIFE and the MEANS TO PROTECT IT or stand with the baby-killing racist POS DUmocrats.
That’s right, but there is a paradoxical element complicating the abortion issue:
To save unborn babies, pro lifers need to win in politics.
But winning in politics requires strategy.
Strategy involves sacrifice, for example sacrificing a pawn to win in chess.
But the debate over abortion involves unborn human babies, not pawns.
Ironically, the refusal of pro-lifers to accept strategic sacrifice means they will not win, and therefore more lives will be lost.
The answer of course, is for pro-life candidates to advocate the lowest number of weeks during which abortion is permitted - and still win their elections. Advocating too strict a ban and letting the Democrat win will not save a single life.
More lives will be saved if pro-life candidates play it smart and win their elections.
EXCELLENT POST.
Why can’t our side understand such common sense? Its the most basic of common sense...........
Christianity is defined by a very gruesome sacrifice. As you say it it does seem odd that it’s not understood.
Nor consider that it is expedient for us, that one man should die for the people, and that the whole nation perish not. - John 11:50
I haven’t said that Republicans should adopt the pro-abortion position.
I am not advocating joining them. I am not advocating that Republicans come out in favor of unrestricted abortions. That is not what I said.
If John Hinderaker thinks we can't beat them, then he should join them and enshrine child sacrifice as a constitutional right.
No, one can't get elected the Governor of Hell without promising to murder as many babies as possible.
But who the hell wants to be the Governor of Hell?
Is your position that we can win on the abortion issue (without any compromise at all) outside of deep red places or not?
Your first comment suggests you think it is "yes". Your second comment suggests it is "no", but we shouldn't even want to win. It's confusing.
Thanks!
One thing I forgot:
The sacrifice of conceding x number of weeks is not a permanent sacrifice, it’s like picking low-hanging fruit - you can always come back later with a taller ladder and pick more.
There is absolutely no downside to making a strategic compromise in the number of weeks abortion is permitted, because the debate over abortion will continue regardless of laws passed and regardless of elections won or lost.
Efforts to influence public opinion in a pro-life direction will always continue outside of politics, and if successful, perhaps future pro-life candidates will find the political landscape more favorable - allowing them to advocate further limitations and still win their elections.
One huge example of this was the advent of ultra-sound in the late 1970s. When it became commonplace for pregnant women to get an ultrasound, the abortion rate dropped precipitately, because it became much harder to deny the fetus was a baby.
And that development occurred totally outside of politics or law.
The political and legal battlegrounds over abortion are not the only battlegrounds - and arguably not the most important battlegrounds.
If pro-life thinkers and cultural leaders can influence the public in the right direction, politics and law will follow suit.
God is forcing this.
Trump is not trusting in God but politics, man.
“I believe the day is coming and not far off, where women will be forced into sterilization and abortion to save the God da*ned climate. That is unless they are completely sexually neglected because the sodomites are too busy gang raping the dwindling male population.”
Wow. This is totally ridiculous.
People who think that way are in fact not trying to save any lives at all. They are trying to make a statement about themselves. They are conservative virtue signalers. A virtue signaler is not ultimately interested in actual results. They are concerned with having a certain image of themselves. It's all about themselves. We typically see virtue signalers on the liberal side, especially in Hollywood.
What does that mean?
BWAHAAHAHAHAHahahahahahahahaha!!!!
Make Americans Good Again!
The United States of Abortion will never be great.
The Peoples' Republic of China would like to have a word with you.
I disagree.
A proper politician can frame the case to the citzens laying out the moral calamity that tolerating sexual depravity and the related murder of innocent human beings truly is, and with persuasive skill, win the argument for votes.
The GOP doesn’t have the balls to accuse the Rats of their mass-murdering designs on Life and aggressions towards the sanctity of motherhood.
#ing Rats
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