I've been pointing out for months that all of the simpering pearl-clutchers who believe "Oh noes, itz 2018 uhgenn!!!" because of all the Republican retirements couldn't be further off the mark.
Because they don't have a clue as to who (i.e., which party) the likely replacements are for all of the retirees. In damn near every case aside from the inevitable loss in NY-3, the GOP is either favored or STRONGLY favored to hold the districts of the departing representatives. But it's easier to reflexively panic than it is to calmly look at the facts.
Furthermore there are numerous pickup opportunities among the districts which Democrats are abandoning, and not just the slam-dunks in North Carolina either.
Despite all that, OF COURSE the GOP may still lose the House in November. But if they do, it will be due to losses they suffer in districts where the Republican incumbent IS running; not because of districts where they aren't.
Pearl-clutchers, read this and relax:
As long as the GOP behaves like normal, I don’t think it even matters. Hard to say Speaker Jeffries would be any different from Speaker Johnson.
We may see a lot of screaming into the air again this November.
I think Trump is on his way to winning (they can try all their tricks again but all of them won’t take).
Republicans are most definitely taking the Senate (they have 49 senators not up for reelection, will not have any losses - Texas and Florida are the only maybe-losses but Cruz and Scott will be reelected- and will take the WV seat easily with Manchin retiring, any others are gravy: AZ, PA, OH, MI, WI, NV).
If we keep the House, we’ll have a Trump Trifecta again...WITHOUT Paul Ryan and John McCain and lots of others gone.
Sorry, wrong info. Republicans have 49 senators total, those not up for reelection and we won’t lose any existing seats.
So that’s the starting point.
Manchin’s +1 equals 50, and any more are gravy.