Sorry, wrong info. Republicans have 49 senators total, those not up for reelection and we won’t lose any existing seats.
So that’s the starting point.
Manchin’s +1 equals 50, and any more are gravy.
There's no chance Scott loses in Florida, and while Cruz' re-election is certainly not automatic it would be a big surprise if he should lose.
So yes, 50-50 is the likeliest outcome as things stand at the moment, with the (hopefully) Republican VP breaking ties.
However do not wave off the probability of Lisa Murkowski becoming Judas Jim Jeffords 2.0 (and maybe taking desiccated old Susan Collins with her) if GOP control of the Senate would be affected by such a move.
Collins is never going to run again, and Murkowski is never going to win again even if she does choose to face the voters of Alaska one more time -- as long as the state repeals Rigged Choice Voting which was implemented in 2022 just in the nick of time to save her saggy ass.
That cow will absolutely never survive a real Republican primary if she runs in 2028, nor will she be able to finagle another win as an "independent" a la 2010. She's toast, but can still do considerable damage from now through '28.
And she will, either from inside the GOP or outside it.