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Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success
ISW ^ | March 27, 2024 | By Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 03/30/2024 3:58:42 AM PDT by Chad C. Mulligan

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: allpropaganda; ciaphuckers; dailypropaganda; inbred; isw; kagan; kagankluxklan; lesspropagandaplease; moscow; neocons; nuland; realism; russiax3; russophobe; stalemate; ukraine; war; warpigcentral; ww3; wwiii
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To: tlozo

“if tomorrow every western nation declared they would send massive military support to Ukraine”

Not going to happen.


61 posted on 03/30/2024 6:56:50 AM PDT by FreedomForce
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To: mo
Russia appears to have closed their base in Cuba in 2002

Russia signed a deal in 2023 leasing land in Cuba for 30 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/americas/cuba-russia-relations-navy-ship-havana-intl-latam/index.html

62 posted on 03/30/2024 6:56:54 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

When Demonrats fight each other, whole cities burn. When white people fight each other, whole continents burn.


63 posted on 03/30/2024 6:57:15 AM PDT by Reeses
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To: FreedomForce
“if tomorrow every western nation declared they would send massive military support to Ukraine”

Not going to happen.

BUT if it did happen, would Russians "fight forever"? We both know the answer is no. So there ARE situations in which the Russians WOULD leave.

64 posted on 03/30/2024 7:00:23 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: tlozo

a deal which...if you read the article..

“....allowing Russia to lease land in Cuba for up to 30 years, develop beachside tourist facilities near Havana, open a supermarket with Russian products and supply the island with badly needed fuel”

Even CNN can’t seem to find a military base in there


65 posted on 03/30/2024 7:01:03 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: mo
Even CNN can’t seem to find a military base in there

Okay, AND if the Russians built one, would the US invade? We wouldn't.

66 posted on 03/30/2024 7:03:09 AM PDT by tlozo ( Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: tlozo

not like we haven’t actually tried that before...


67 posted on 03/30/2024 7:12:22 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you don't understand, no explanation is possible)
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To: tlozo

It’s money and center of effort that should be devoted to maritime defense.


68 posted on 03/30/2024 7:16:48 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Apparatchik

Now look up and post a map of the Eurasian Steppe, imbecile.


69 posted on 03/30/2024 7:17:50 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: mo

Says Macgregor eh?

LOL!


70 posted on 03/30/2024 7:31:55 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." --George Washington)
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To: AndyJackson

Throwing out insults doesn’t make you superior. It makes you look like an a-hole.

Considering where your credibility is for asserting that Ukraine is in Asia, that actually may be appropriate.

The Eurasian landmass is made up of Europe and Asia.


71 posted on 03/30/2024 7:33:20 AM PDT by Apparatchik (Русские свиньи, идите домой!)
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To: Apparatchik

So please post a map of the Eurasian Steppe, imbecile. Comprehending this point matters. The Nazis and Napolean ruined themselves not getting this issue.


72 posted on 03/30/2024 7:38:53 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: AndyJackson
Here you go:

World Atlas: What Continent is Ukraine In?
73 posted on 03/30/2024 7:41:03 AM PDT by Apparatchik (Русские свиньи, идите домой!)
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To: Apparatchik

Thank you. Now post the map showing how stupid it is to fight an Asian land power on the Eurasian Steppe, which includes Ukraine the map will show when you post it. Countries west of the Carpathians don’t share this crippling geographic debility.


74 posted on 03/30/2024 7:41:29 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

GDP is a corrupt statistic which few question

NY city’s GDP is claimed to be $1.5 Trillion. The size of Spain and Canada, and only 20% below Russia’s

Does NY City produce ANYTHING except financial trading? How would they fare in a war with Russia?


75 posted on 03/30/2024 7:41:55 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Apparatchik

So post a map showing the. Eurasian Steppe and where it ends at the Carpathian Mountains.


76 posted on 03/30/2024 7:46:12 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: OVERTIME

So if Russia can win this war by threatening nuclear war and convincing people like you that the threats will be carried out, then there is no limit to their power.


77 posted on 03/30/2024 7:54:35 AM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: OVERTIME

All Americans are to be sacrificed for the inbred Kagan Klux Klan of NeoCon supremacists.


78 posted on 03/30/2024 8:04:22 AM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
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To: Chad C. Mulligan
No doubt, you and the same fools that wrote this will be declaring victory after Ukraine surrenders and after every inch of annexed territory remains with the Russian Federation.

EVERY INCH of territory that Russia liberated and wanted in this war was annexed by September of 2022.

This propaganda is merely an attempt to move the goalposts and claim Russia wanted all of Ukraine but NATO and Ukraine stopped it from taking it.

But, if there isn't a Ukrainian surrender, the Russians will keep going and take as much land mass as necessary to protect Russian Federation territory. Nothing will stop them from doing so.

79 posted on 03/30/2024 8:37:54 AM PDT by Kazan (Megan C. bet me, lost the bet and was humiliated!)
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To: canuck_conservative
There would have been no war if we hadn't fomented an illegal coup in Ukraine, installed a puppet government hostile to Russia and the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine and set off a civil war.

There would have been no need for a peace deal if Ukraine hadn't reneged on the Minsk Accords.

A peace deal was reached two years ago in Turkey but killed by Boris Johnson.

Keep lies north of the border.

80 posted on 03/30/2024 8:41:45 AM PDT by Kazan (Megan C. bet me, lost the bet and was humiliated!)
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