Unfortunately winning the primary was the easy part. Biden is trailing in Michigan, ironically because he’s too pro-Israel for the substantial Arab population, but Trump also needs to pick up Pennsylvania and one other swing state to win. To do that he needs to get independent voters over to his side and not just appeal to the base like he did in 2020. He still has time to get these voters onside, but knowing Trump’s personality I’m not sure he will take the opportunity.
I don’t see him winning in November. I hope I’m wrong.
Undeclareds already like Trump. Muslims may not like Trump’s support of Israel, but in the voting booth, family finances may become the major concern.
You have ignored the impact of third parties—they will play a major role in this election.
Once we see what the third party field and financing looks like we will have better information.