You have ignored the impact of third parties—they will play a major role in this election.
Once we see what the third party field and financing looks like we will have better information.
You have ignored the impact of third parties—they will play a major role in this election.
When's the last time a third party got even a single electoral vote? The only way in which 3rd party candidates influence election results is to peel off support for one of the major candidates. RFK Jr. could definitely play that role. Unfortunately, his anti-vaxx views mean he's more likely to attract RINO votes than Rat votes, but we'll see.