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To: blitz128
I think the more accurate analogy would be that Ukraine is Germany in February 1945.

***Only in this war you have limited objectives.***

Russia is not looking for the complete capitulation of Ukraine, nor are they really interested in taking Kiev and the more nationalist areas, they do not want to really destroy more than necessary (it's one of their major trade partners, 1/3 of the people there have family ties to Russia, they speak a similar language, many are Orthodox...)... This was a war Russia did not want but was from their perspective forced to have because of Western meddling in Ukraine and military expansion Eastward which threatens them.

But Ukraine is cooked.

The question now is just how many more people (Ukrainians) our leaders want to send to their graves before they end this. While we talk about “sovereignty,” the reality is that Ukraine's leaders were hand picked by us, their finances are run by us, they depend on our intel, our weapons, our money, our training, our political backing (pushing allies to help, sanctions of Russia etc)... If we say end it, it ends. Trump isn't kidding when he says he can end this in 24 hours.

Can we keep it going? I suspect for while, Ukraine is scratching bottom in trying to get warm bodies to stuff into uniform, but I think they probably can hold on for a while. It's hard to tell because while you have inflated and total BS casualty reports for the Russians in our MSM, you have a veil of secrecy and silence regards Ukraine and their manpower and losses. Occasionally you get a report where you get some credible, empirical indicators (example the leaks which Newsweek publicized), but most is JUNK. However:

***Continuing this war will no longer change the outcome.***

In gamble, after the hand is dealt and wagers are made, people can fold, but eventually there comes a point where you have to show your hand and you can't change your mind anymore at that point. That's already happened. The play has been made.

But to answer your question, yes Putin got what he wanted:

1. If the West is going to purge Russian influence form Ukraine (that's what Maiden really was), then Russia will take those areas of Ukraine where they see they have a claim.

2. Russia wants to weaken Ukraine and the military build up which was happening there to the point where they no longer perceive them as a threat. That has been accomplished.

3. They want to create a punitive cost for Ukraine, i.e. make Ukraine think twice before they try this again. I'm sure that was accomplished.

4. Send a message to the West - stop trying to expand NATO into former Soviet and border states. We did NOT receive that message in 2008 with the Republic of Georgia, we didn't receive the message in Ukraine 2014, but I am sure we have received the message today. Russia isn't kidding, do not try to put tanks and missiles on their border. They do not want that and are willing to take military action to prevent such if need be.

You need to realize, this is a limited campaign. It's not total war and about total defeat of an enemy. This is the use of military force in order to achieve political ends. It is literally Clausewitz 101: “war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means...”

87 posted on 02/19/2024 9:19:44 AM PST by Red6
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To: Red6

Good response, but hard for me to get past the “make Ukraine think twice about doing this again “
Don’t recall Ukraine invading Russia, or do you mean instead of bending over, resisting? For part 3 of this story?

I will add one other question, is it you position that if the march on Kiev had taken Kiev that Putin would have goodwill gestured his way out of there.

Personally I think the “never wanted Kiev” is making lemonade out of lemons

Word on the street hitler never really wanted Stalingrad….


89 posted on 02/19/2024 9:28:47 AM PST by blitz128
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