How Many Elections Must High-Polling Republicans Lose To Learn Ballots Matter More Than Votes?

The Federalist ^ | 02/14/2024 | Shawn Fleetwood

[SeekAndFind]

Despite Joe Biden’s unpopularity, Democrats are consistently finding ways to win at the ballot box.

The majority of public opinion surveys conclusively indicate one thing: Most Americans disapprove of Joe Biden and his disastrous presidency.

Not only is Biden viewed unfavorably by most Americans, but a significant majority of the country believes the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, polls regularly show most Americans are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the president’s handling of major issues, such as inflation and the ongoing invasion at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Yet, despite Biden’s flailing presidency and unpopularity, Democrats are consistently finding ways to win at the ballot box.

Case in point: New York, where Democrats cut into Republicans’ already-slim House majority on Tuesday by successfully winning a special election to fill the seat of former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the lower chamber over corruption-related matters in December. Within hours of polls closing, Democrat Tom Suozzi was projected to defeat Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip in the battle for the Empire State’s 3rd Congressional District.

While polls predicted a narrow Suozzi victory, they significantly underestimated Democrat support. With 93 percent of the vote tabulated, as of publication, Suozzi is estimated to have beaten Pilip by 7.8 points — more than double the 3.7-point lead Suozzi was projected to win by, according to the RCP polling average.

As if things couldn’t get any worse for the GOP, Democrats also won a special election in Pennsylvania that will allow the state party to maintain control of the commonwealth’s House of Representatives. While Biden defeated former President Trump in the district by 11 points in the 2020 election, preliminary results from Tuesday’s contest show Democrat Jim Prokopiak defeating Republican Candace Cabanas by a whopping 35.4 points.

These results raise the question: If Biden is deeply unpopular among the American electorate, how do Republicans keep losing what should be winnable elections?

‘You Get A Poll! You Get A Poll! You Get A Poll!’

Tuesday’s election to replace Santos isn’t the only race in which polls widely underestimated Democrat support. As The Blaze’s Daniel Horowitz previously observed, the majority of surveys predicting the outcome of the country’s biggest 2022 Senate and gubernatorial elections overhyped Republicans’ odds of victory.

In Michigan’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Tudor Dixon, for example, the RCP polling average showed Whitmer with a 1-point advantage heading into Election Day. Whitmer ended up winning the race by 10 points. The RCP average similarly projected that Republican Mehmet Oz would defeat Democrat John Fetterman by 0.4 points in Pennsylvania’s highly contested Senate race. Fetterman ultimately won the seat by 5 points.

The only contested Senate and gubernatorial races in which Republicans outperformed their expected polling averages were those in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio won their elections by 19.4 and 16.4 points, respectively.

Surely, another year of high inflation, open borders, and rampant crime under Biden would push voters towards the GOP, right?

Wrong.

ABC News published a FiveThirtyEight analysis in September showing that Democrats not only won the majority of special elections between January and September 2023, but that they overperformed their projected margins. Even in some races Republicans won, Democrats managed to surpass expectations.

These trends were also noticeable in November’s off-year elections, in which Democrats won Kentucky’s gubernatorial race and a Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat, took control of Virginia’s General Assembly, and passed a ballot amendment that enshrined baby-killing into the Ohio Constitution. Republicans performed so poorly that they were left to brag about GOP Gov. Tate Reeves winning reelection in dark-red Mississippi by just 3.2 points. (Trump won the state by 16.5 points in the 2020 election.)

Everything Sucks, So What Gives?

While a lack of any concrete vision for the future of the country may be partly to blame, another theory explaining Republicans’ election failures can be found in the changes to election procedures enacted in 2020.

In the name of Covid, many states altered their election laws in ways that expanded the use of unsupervised mail-in voting and insecure election practices such as the use of ballot drop boxes in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential contest. After seeing major success in that election, Democrats realized they don’t have to focus on Election Day turnout to win elections — they only need to bank enough mail-in ballots during early voting to bring home the bacon.

In the years since 2020, the Democrat election machine has methodically orchestrated a nationwide effort designed to capitalize on this strategy and exploit existing mail-in voting laws. First, tax-exempt nonprofits bankrolled by leftist billionaires skirt federal law by registering demographics likely to vote for Democrats. With these likely-Democrat voters on state voter rolls, left-wing activists jump into action, harvesting these low-effort votes and running what have become highly effective get-out-the-vote campaigns that accrue Democrats an advantage over Republicans ahead of Election Day.

RealClearPolitics published an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon at play in the 2022 midterms last year.

For this reason, using polls to predict election outcomes is a fool’s errand, as it’s become incredibly difficult for pollsters to estimate how much these efforts will affect any given race. The reality is that Republicans will continue to lose elections unless they change the laws where they hold power or figure out a way to compete with Democrats’ election machine. Until then, using polls and public opinion surveys to predict election outcomes will remain meaningless.

[Jonty30]

They don’t mind losing all of them. Getting wealthy is their objective. They are allowed to get wealthy in exchange for letting Democrats win.

[Skwor]

Quick read of the article appears to ignore the fact that the mail in voting scheme is just that, a fraud machine.

Democheats arenot collecting more ballots, they are manufacturing ballots from thin air.

[linMcHlp]

May interest

[convoter2016]

The article gives the answer: How did Ron DeSantis win his reelection as Florida governor so decisively? Ask the Florida Republicans for advice.

[Mr. N. Wolfe]

“If Biden is deeply unpopular among the American electorate, how do Republicans keep losing what should be winnable elections?”

Good question.

Answer: Election fraud is the biggest problem. Republicans have done very little about election fraud. Zero accountability.

Now I have a question. When has the Republican party ever implemented a conservative agenda?

Answer: Never

U.S. Debt: We are currently 35 trillion dollars in debt.

Border Security: Republicans in both legislative chambers opposed Trump’s border wall. He had to fight for a measly 4 billion dollars.

Foreign Aid: The United States continues to be the largest donor to the United Nations, accounting for one-fifth of funding for the body’s collective budget. The UN is comprised of countries that hate the U.S.

Abortion: It took over 50 years to reverse Roe v Wade. The states still have the authority to kill unborn babies.

Military Readiness: The military is WOKE and facing an equipment and recruiting crisis.

Republican debates: Republicans allow all of their debates to be moderated by hardcore leftists.

The list goes on.

My point is that the Republican party has done absolutely nothing for conservatives.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

Bfl

[Revel]

The author gets it. People need to stop accepting the tools of vote fraud such as mail in voting. Early voting and much more.

[vpintheak]

You are correct. It’s all the Uniparty, all the time. That is why they can’t have Trump win.

[Bikkuri]

"My point is that the Republican party has done absolutely nothing for conservatives."

The problem here, is that the Republican Party is no longer conservative.

What options are there? (Hopefully, MAGA pulls through, along with a HUGE house cleaning.)
I like the idea of a new Conservative party (remember, the Republican party was a replacement party at one time), but there aren't enough of the conservative population to make it happen, so we are stuck between a rock and a hard place until hopefully this election season, since it may be our last as a Republic, we will see major changes.... ... .. .


On the other hand, even IF we were able to make a Conservative party, how long would it take for it too to be infiltrated..

[Cobra64]

This is why the Republican Party is referred to as: “The Stupid Party.”

When it come to getting republicans into office, The Stupid Party is naive, dumb, and lazy. No common sense.

[Wally_Kalbacken]

2018 in CA was the alarm bell on ballot harvesting. Democrats noted how well it worked, but assumed that it could only be implemented in extreme political jurisdictions like CA. Then Covid happened, and Democrats were able to apply ballot harvesting in a lot of places. Add the special sauce of Zuckerbucks and…

Wisconsin will run the 2024 election under the same election law as 2020. Dem. Gov. Tony Evers has vetoed 2 election reform bills passed by the GOP legislature. So, almost nothing has changed. Well the Wi Sup. Ct. ruled that ballot collection boxes outside the supervisor of election offices were not Constitutionally allowed in WI. But that was before the court majority flipped. Who knows if they will revisit that issue.

The GOP has been asleep at the switch on this issue

[spincaster]

The old guard GOP has to go.

[Justa]

“Ask the Florida Republicans for advice.”

-Cleaned-up voter rolls.

-Real-ID driver licenses (strong ID verification).

-A Real-ID ID card required for voter registration.

Voila - Republicans win.

I remember a few years ago a Dem operative bemoaning a local FL election unseating a long-serving D by a wide margin. He said something to the effect that the recent changes to voter rolls (cleaning them up + Real-ID) and ID requirements would mean the end of the Democrat party in FL. He was right. Works for me.

[Adder]

And no one seems able to prove it either.

No matter how many precincts end up with more ballots than voters or that vote 100% D.

Nothing to see here...the country got rolled in 2020 and we are being cheated every election since.

[dpetty121263]

The whole report skips the fact that a good percentage of American Voters are so stupid, uneducated and morally bankrupt and who fall in line with Democrat views. Especially American Women as they are the worst. Where do you think these Politicians come from, Mars? No they come from the rank and file of these Communities. Fact is the American Public in General should not be allowed to vote unless they own property and pass a current events test which I know will not happen but should in order to save the Republic.

[bella1]

The Country is no longer conservative, especially among the college educated. Time to wake up and stop being Charlie Brown after Lucy pulls the football away.

[ClearCase_guy]

If Joe makes it all the way to November ...
If Joe if widely seen by everyone as an absolute potato ...
If Joe wins in November with 100 million ballots ...

What will the American people do?

The GOP won’t help.
The states won’t help.
The courts won’t help.
The media won’t help.
Showing up in the public square and waving signs won’t help.
Pledging to vote harder in 2028 won’t help.

[Wallace T.]

The Republican Party has never been dominated by conservatives. There were big government Republicans like Theodore Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover and limited government Republicans like Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge. There were isolationists like Robert Taft and internationalists like Prescott Bush. Since 1940, with the exceptions of Goldwater, Reagan, and Trump, all GOP Presidential candidates have come from the moderate wing of the party. In the South, now the bastion of the Republican Party, the oldest politicians started their careers as Democrats and switched as the South realigned. Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush are just the modern versions of what were once called me too Republicans and what we now call RINOs or the right wing of the Uniparty.

[bella1]

Uneducated? Most of the Liberals that I know are highly educated. So, you have the dependent class and the educated class voting alike. Throw in the immigrants and the writing is on the wall. Trump will lose, especially since he has been unable to become a statesman during his time-off years but insists on remaining a name-calling, egotistical narcissist.