Posted on 01/10/2024 4:14:43 AM PST by FarCenter
When the votes are being tallied in Taiwan’s presidential election, it won’t be only the 23.6 million inhabitants of the island eagerly awaiting a result – in Beijing and Washington, too, there will be some anxious faces.
The vote of January 13, 2024, is seen as a litmus test for the future of cross-strait relations, coming at a time when the status quo over Taiwan – a territory Beijing claims as an integral part of “one China” – is being challenged.
If Taiwan’s incumbent, independence-oriented party stays in power, Chinese leader Xi Jinping might feel he has no choice but to force the issue of reunification.
Conversely, if the opposition – which agrees with Beijing that Taiwan and the mainland are part of “one China” but not about who governs it – wins, Beijing might feel it has more space to be patient on the issue.
In the run-up to the vote, Beijing has ramped up military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait in an apparent warning to Taiwanese voters. On January 6, in one of the most recent incidents, China sent a series of balloons over the island, which the Taiwan government cited as a threat to air travel and an attempt at intimidation.
Meanwhile, in his annual New Year’s address, Xi stated that “China will surely be reunified,” raising fears internationally that he intends to pursue the issue militarily if necessary.
For Washington, too, the outcome of the vote will have implications. The United States has cultivated strong ties with the current leadership of Taiwan. But recent tensions in the strait have raised the risk of war.
US actions deemed provocative by Beijing, such as the 2022 visit of then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, have resulted in China upping its military threats in the strait. And this has raised speculation that China’s patience is growing thin and its timeline for reunification is growing shorter.
Meanwhile, questions about the US capacity to respond to any Chinese aggression over Taiwan have risen; the specter of war in a third region of the world – after Ukraine and Israel – worries national security leadership in Washington.
This alarmist article is brought to you by the CCP and the KMT.
This alarmist article is brought to you by the CCP and the KMT.
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Mankind has evolved technology wise, but basic human condition has not.
A relatively small island is worth going to war because of historical claims, sound familiar? Putin is doing the same.
What will adding Taiwan back into the fold add to China? If Taiwan had been part of China since Ww2 would China be any different?
Just more of the same, greed,power, control.
Personally I think that Putin and Xi are afraid of what free and prosperous countries on their borders reflect to their own people what is possible
For Putin Ukraine was his last great chance to expand his empire, natural resources would just be a bonus, to Xi Taiwan and its prosperity represent a threat to his. Does China think it is going to walk into Taiwan and take over world chip market.
An invasion of Taiwan would be a militarily disastrous for China as the invasion has been for Russia and Russia had far less issues invading Ukraine than China will Taiwan
100 miles of open ocean to cross, allies had a few miles and it was touch and go
Say they succeed, as Thomas sowell would ask “and then what”
Business as usual, exports as usual?
Chinas dominance in many markets is being challenged by other countries like Philippines, Vietnam , India. Their housing market is a disaster, their demographics are not good and frankly their military has not been tested.
Russia had a large powerful military at least on paper, but a much smaller country with a much inferior military(on paper) and a relatively small amount of western aid has given Russia all it can handle
I hope China does not do this, but I imagine they will or should I say Xi will. Like Putin who is going to restrain his ambitions?
I fear, at some point Xi is going to have to make good on his promises or lose credibility
Like Putin he is surrounded by yes men and when it comes down to it there isn’t going to be anyone to tell him this is not worth it
The deciding factors will be freedom and money
China is broke. Wealth is not allowed
It’s not alarmist.
That’s how the ChiComs take territory in the modern age.
The ChiComs just buy the pols.
In Taiwan’s case, the ChiComs already have.
This election will just put paid to it.
Xi is surrounded by a broke urban population
To start with, none of the parties are communist sympathizers.
There is the Kuomintang party, which is supported mostly by political refugees from the Communist takeover of the rest of China. They basically argue that they are the rulers of the whole China so they do not support “independence”. They would like for Taiwan to take back the rest of China.
The independence party, on the other hand, is supported by the descendants of the original (pre-communist) Taiwan population. They feel discriminated by the Kuomintang elites, and do not want to be ever part of any China!
Historically, Taiwan was almost never been part of China.
It was independent country of non Chinese indigenous people (related to Pacific islanders) until about 1600 (These people are still living there in some areas and many Taiwanese are of mixed ancestry).
Then it was overrun by some Chinese warrior and settled by Chinese immigrants. It was also for long time part of Japan.
Only after the end of WWII, it was taken from Japan and annexed by China for few years, but after Communist takeover of the China, it became the last refuge of the non-communists.
It could decide if you can buy an APPLE IPhone too.
The head of FOXCON is running for President of Taiwan. The Mainland Chinese are already sabotaging the company.
And that is a dangerous situation for a leader which in the last jas often lead to war
What worries me is that the Neocons will try their luck with China (over Taiwan), given that they have been horribly SPANKED regarding Ukraine. And who knows, maybe their luck will be better with Taiwan (and maybe China will only take out trouble-making US cities in response).
China won’t invade. They can’t invade. There hasn’t been an attempt at a large scale invasion since Inchon.
China does not have the equipment or experience or expertise.
China can bomb them. They can cut them off. They can blockade them. They do not have the means to invade.
They don’t have to. They have moles embedded everywhere in their industry and government.
Xhinavmade war u0on the US.
China
The invasion of Taiwan will be a Chicom delegation stepping off a jet onto a red carpet at the invitation of a friendly government. Just like Hong Kong. Just watch.
“China can bomb them. They can cut them off. They can blockade them. They do not have the means to invade.”
Unless Taiwan is as self-sufficient as Albania was during the Cold War, it seems that Taiwan will be out of luck, if effectively blockaded.
“Xhinavmade war u0on the US.”
Actually that was the Globalists, with help from the Neocons, people who knew better, but didn’t want to upset the Globalist Gravy Train.
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