Posted on 11/08/2023 10:06:56 AM PST by FarCenter
...
With the war in Gaza on Sisi’s doorstep, the regime faces a difficult balancing act. Israel is bent on securing its border no matter the consequences for Egypt. Yet the fallout for Sisi at home could antagonize domestic vulnerabilities. The image of thousands of Gazans dying while Egypt’s Rafah border stays closed could be very harmful for the regime.
Sisi needs to be cautious, given his close relationship with the Israeli government. Egypt has been party to the 16-year-long Israeli blockade of Gaza, enforcing tight controls on the border crossing at Rafah.
But with an election looming he now needs to appease an Egyptian public who are far more sympathetic to the Gazan’s plight than the Israelis. He has attracted widespread criticism from opponents who say his administration has been organizing staged protests to piggyback on public sympathy for Palestinians as the death toll from Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip rises.
But the real risk to his administration lies at home with the ever-present threat of Egypt’s well-established Islamist movements. It was a Muslim Brotherhood-sponsored popular uprising at Tahrir Square that toppled Mubarak and handed government to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011.
That history now acts as a serious warning for Egypt’s military to never be complacent about the potential threat of Islamist movements. Sisi’s regime has done its utmost to destroy the Brotherhood.
In the ten years since his security forces massacred more than 900 people while violently breaking up mass anti-government sit-ins in Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares in August 2013, tens of thousands have been subject to arbitrary detention without trial or have been sentenced in military courts to lengthy prison terms for dissent.
Perhaps the most shameful exhibition of corrupt use of power was his regime’s treatment of Morsi. The former president died after collapsing inside the defendant’s “cage” in a Cairo courtroom following six years in solitary confinement.
It is one thing for an incumbent to deal with the failings of a collapsing economy. It is quite another to accommodate an aggrieved public watching a human rights massacre right on its border. If the Sisi regime continues to let this happen on its watch, the opposition will have more ammunition than they have had for years.
Definitely a US objective.
Not a US objective - at least not historically. Obama/Clinton backed Sisi and the military take-back of Egypt after Morsi was elected.
Whoever wrote this is viewing Egypt through a westerner’s lens. Sisi doesn’t give a flying fart what the people think. The way middle eastern dictators use tanks is not for maneuver warfare. It is as mobile pill boxes to kill protestors. The army will not hesitate to mow down Egyptians if so ordered. It will only take one or two such instances and the public will fall into line. Dictatorships are stable until they are not. The US and Israel will provide any amount of intel to keep Sisi from falling. Not because he is a wonderful guy or an ally. But because they don’t want any more distractions. Meanwhile, Iran, Turkey and a host of others will use whatever assets they have to destabilize Egypt. Not because they care about the Palestinians, but because family fights are the most vicious fights.
100% correct.
1. Egyptians had a dose of Muslim Brotherhood. Sisi save them and they remember.
2. The article could have been written inside the Lying US State Department. (California Dreaming)
Egypt will not take Palestinians and Sisi will stay in power.
Period. End Trans.
The chaos which is being created under this Biden administration will have lasting and horrible consequences.
We won’t be able to simply fix this even when we do have someone else take the reigns that isn’t just a rubber stamp for every special interest able to spend enough.
***IMHO- this administration is for sale, follows some leftist populist ideology, and does not truly consider the consequences of their actions, i.e. hasty Afghanistan withdraw (caused Afghanistan to fail), Ukraine NATO expansion (caused a war), you still might see Egypt flip against us, Turkey is drifting away from us (Erdogan). On the economic front you see folks divesting of the dollar, the massive expansion of BRICS and increased role it takes, oil proces going up and up and up long term... Very unstable and unpredictable times and MOST of it can be linked back to the clowns we have in the White House today.
You need to realize, the Sisi government was already hit hard by our Russia sanctions. Egypt does a lot of trade with Russia and especially food. Now this.
By the time Biden leaves, this world will be a FAR more dangerous place. God help us and Israel is the MB takes control of Egypt again. I’m not sure if the Egyptian intel and military will be able reverse (as when they got Morsi out last time) things this time around. There is too much inertia against us and that reverb is likely in their intel and military as well.
Egypt is likely (((THE))) most influential Arab state. Much of the news, TV series and movies, music, some of the prominent universities and theologians all come from Egypt. It is one of the most populous Arab/Muslim nations in that region and they currently work together with Israel and us regards security issues in Gaza and Libya. That place sort of sets the tone and has been very moderate. But even if not intentional, this clown we have in office today is essentially doing all he can to create a monster and have Egypt flip.
Right you are.
I lived in Egypt 3 years in the late 1990s, before Mubarak was ousted. Mubarak had tens of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood in prisons. Gaza is Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptians hate Muslim Brotherhood.
Palestinians will need to be exiled elsewhere, such as Iran. They will not be allowed to remain in Israel and Egypt will not take them.
What a Sisi!
Sisi is in power because the Egyptian intel service and military, which has far more educated, secular, and world traveled folks than the average Egyptian, took Morsi out.
Morsi flat out won the elections: https://www.foxnews.com/world/muslim-brotherhood-backed-candidate-morsi-wins-egyptian-presidential-election
But no one (in the West) really wants this turd in power, so when the Egyptian military and intel service removed him (in what was a coup), we didn’t complain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Egyptian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
Caveat: all our democracy, sovereignty and human rights babel is selectively applied junk.
Now you have: The US disrupting the economy of Egypt with our sanctions on Russia, even impacting Egypt’s food supply: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/09/1181424777/how-the-war-in-ukraine-plays-a-part-in-egypts-food-crisis Why do you think Egypt moved to join BRICS like they did? Why do you think Egypt is secretly sending missiles and rockets to Russia in return for secretly getting food from them? https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2023/04/12/why-egypt-may-have-sought-arms-for-food-deal-with-russia/ The Egyptians are actually on our side (the ruling elite), but when you start messing with food you very quickly get folks with pitchforks and burning torches on the streets. And now you have a conflict where we want the Egyptians to show restraint (not get involved) but the average Muslim sees this as their brothers being abused in Gaza and many are demanding action, with the majority of average folks already ideologically favoring folks like the MB, Morsi, etc. This is what you would call “pouring gas on the fire.”
Obozo engineered removal of Hosni Mubarak and Morsi’s rise to power. The election of Morsi was paid for on orders of Obozo.
2 years after Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, the Citizens revolted. They refused to accept the Despots and had millions of Egytians in the streets.
Morsi ordered Sisi to fire on Egyptians and he refused. He and the military put Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood leaders in Prison. The rest is history.
I do know what happened in Egypt, I still have good friends in Cairo.
Forget what the US press said at the time, what I said was what actually happened in Egypt.
You said: “But no one (in the West) really wants this turd in power”
The Egyptians still do.
The Left and the bureaucraps in DC don’t want Sisi.
I personally like Sisi, he is FAR FAR better than the Terrorists.
Yes, Sisi works with Israel to eliminate the Terrorists.
Egypt could flip at anytime. Then we’re going to be in big trouble.
MIGHT BE??????
In Egypt, as in Pakistan and many other places, it’s the military and intel service that holds the real power.
Fortunately, in Egypt as in Pakistan (a nuclear power), many of those in the senior ranks in the military a intel service (EGIS) went to Western universities, attended Western military or other federal service schools, have traveled the world, and have a higher education.
Morsi was elected and the removal of him wasn’t by some huge popular support.
It was a flat out military coup and then (not that old and in good health) he drops dead in a court room:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Egyptian_Crisis_under_Mohamed_Morsi
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48668941 (no one is looking to hard in figuring that one out)
I am not unhappy with the outcome.
Morsi was not good for the interests of the US and West as a whole.
One can argue that even Egypt is better off without him.
But it’s a long shot to pretend it’s all just Western media bias and that the people wanted him ousted.
I believe you have friends in Cairo. But this is a case where personal experiences are not adequate in regard to the larger population and ideologies/opinions that have support. I’d imagine, these friends of yours might speak English, may have been in the West, are higher educated and likely more affluent by Egyptian standards. Heck, there is a high chance they are Coptic, in which case of course they and the folks around them didn’t like Morsi... Do they really speak for a population that is extremely young, uneducated, highly pious, poor and have never left Egypt?
Mubarak was old and fading out. While I do not agree with much of what Obama did, I do believe this may have been a case where standing in the way of the inevitable merely reduces your influence and favor in a post Mubarak Egypt. In Egypt as in Iraq, Syria, Pakistan... it’s more of a dog eats dog world and a physically weak and somewhat senile leader, someone low energy like we have today with Biden cannot survive in that world. Leaders like Mubarack and Musharraf (with him it was his heart) simply get eliminated because their physical abilities begin to limit their ability to lead in a nation where it’s still more of a “strong-arm” that comes and remains in power through the backing of the military and intel service.
Of course Sisi is better.
But you miss the point.
He’s a leader in a nation where millions of people depend on bread rations. Abject poverty and our coercion to sanction Russia, where Egypt gets much of their food from, with whom they conduct trade has not helped Sisi. That combined with Gaza where much of the Islamic world et al. sympathize with their brethren and are demanding Egypt do something, is putting Sisi in a pinch.
My friends in Cairo were involved in the overthrow of Morsi.
I saw the masses of people in the streets. Old ladies chasing young punk MB like a bunch of hen’s after a june bug.
Egyptians hated Ambassador Patterson and SOS Hillary Clinton. Not hear say, I saw the signs and had conversations with people I trust there.
I posted many article here during that period. Most from off shore sources because the US media was all lies then too.
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/1082266448997826560
https://twitter.com/AmrAdelFahmy/status/567333811281985536
https://twitter.com/EagleShery/status/1315754858092339200
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/429575536130551808
(http://emannabih.com/evidence-on-mohamed-mursis-direct-link-to-terror-acts-in-egypt/)
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/423502116297011200 (video link no longer works)
https://twitter.com/MyTrueHope/status/418917409655754753
https://twitter.com/TX_1/status/353274688585207808
Just a few remaining snippets of a conflict over several years. Lots of links no longer work. I tried searching the posts I made on FR and they did not even come up using google this far back.
I lived this more a while. Watched it daily. Have been doing this a long time. Have been on Twitter 14 years. Came here looking for news of the #IranElection phase in Iran. That one ended badly for some good young people. It looked like they might actually win, but German techs helped the Mullahs. Many arrested, 1/2 were disappeared.
“Sisi in a pinch.”
And Turkey is in a pinch. Racing inflation and he has befriended every Islamist as soldiers, including ISIS and Muslim Brotherhood. (who are headquartered in Turkey now)
Two points:
1.) Ambassadors to foreign nations are usually a farce (especially any place nice). It’s usually a kickback to big campaign donors and loyal party members and many of these folks do not speak the language, have not been part of the state department, often never even been to that country nor had any formal education either government or private which would give them any knowledge of the place. Sometime the ignorance of these guys is so bad that it’s amusing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFMHtmNHbg (a funny on this topic, start at 2 minutes. It’ll be short and give you a laugh)
But it gets even better from a humorous stand point, or worse if your consider who is representing the US abroad. Often we want to send a sociopolitical message with who we send abroad as an ambassador, so we send women to Muslim and homos to Eastern Orthodox or devout Catholic nations. We basically poke people in the eye because ultimately it’s their country, their values, and we are telling them they are wrong and we are right or better. This is the sort of stuff that inclusive, tolerant and diverse (sarc) people do: https://www.foxnews.com/faith-values/us-pride-flag-embassy-holy-see
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-ambassador-marches-in-warsaw-pride-parade-as-conservative-government-pushes-anti-lgbtq-stance (Warsaw- ultra Catholic and not really on board with our homo crap!)
https://hu.usembassy.gov/news-remarks-of-ambassador-david-pressman-budapest-pride-opening-event/ (Hungary- not really on board with our homo- crap)
Your point that many of the state department folks were disliked isn’t a big surprise.
2.) You need to be careful when it comes to assuming that a crowd or your personal beliefs are shared by most of society. I grew up in Germany, and because I was a military brat, in the Civil Air Patrol, went to a military DoD school, the opinions and ideas I had were defiantly NOT what the majority of Germans nor even most Americans back in the US had even though these ideas were shared by most in my circles. The crowd I was riding with was far more conservative and pro-military. Based on the opinions and feelings of the crowd I was with, Carter should have never won. Even later while I was finishing college, the crowd I was once with would have never elected Clinton, but now being in college I could see that Clinton did have a lot of support.
The point I’m trying to make is that the crowds we are with or associate with are often NOT representative of the majority in a society.
Morsi was actually fairly popular when he was elected: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2014/05/22/key-takeaways-from-our-survey-of-egypt/ (Mubarak was politically dead)
Morsi and the bearded idiots that came to power with him, quickly lost popularity as they mismanaged things.
If you have an old sick man (Mubarak) that you back and try to keep in power, meddling in another countries internal affairs, and you have a younger highly popular candidate, how do you think that can end?
I did not like Morsi either, but trying to block him and backing Mubarak who was old and weak, disliked by the people, would have likely backfired. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, you choose the option with less suck. Morsi may not have been our #1 joyous option, but when he did come to power, he didn’t ask us to leave like a Charles De Gaul did (72 hours to get out of France) when we did back his opposition openly and he ended up winning. These are sensitive issues that can backfire and frankly while I do not like much of what Obama did, he likely took the “low risk” path. You also need to realize, just because you reluctantly accept Morsi, does not mean you have to back him eternally. When the opportunity arises to dump the guy, as it did, get behind it.
—As to Turkey.
Erdogan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) is positioning himself as a sort of leader of the Muslim world.
His original goal was to tie Turkey to the West, even bring them into the EU. Originally, the direction he was going was more like Ataturk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atat%C3%BCrk
That ended when the Euro’s (Germans and French) basically rejected Turkey and it became clear Turkey will NEVER be part of the EU.
After this rejection his direction changed and he began playing with these morons like the MB or now with his great sympathies for the plight of the folks in Gaza. It’s all political chess and in fact he deep down doesn’t even like these Palestinians. But, right now it helps him self promote:
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/erdogan-launches-joint-global-initiative-on-gaza/#
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/25/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news
Boy, what a hero in helping those poor Palestinians, huh? It’s just slimy political maneuvering where he’s trying to make himself out as the leader of the Muslim world.
It really boils down to this, Erdogan sees himself as a great leader and is trying hard to expand the scope of his power as well as influence of Turkey regionally.
Not saying he’s a nice or good guy, in fact he’s a de facto authoritarian dictator. But his strategy does seem to be working for him.
Sadly, it’s working, and I would not say Turkey is in a pinch. They are doing quite well:
GDP growth at 5.6%: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=TR (inflation adjusted)
Turkey does have very high inflation: ~62% https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-inflation-rises-6153-september-near-forecast-2023-10-03/
Their national debt is very low: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/turkey/government-debt—of-nominal-gdp
Unemployment is low for a Middle Eastern nation, good on the global stage, poor compared the Western industrialized nations: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/TUR/turkey/unemployment-rate (however you want to see this one)
Turkey and Erdogan are NOT in a bad position. In fact, despite Erdogan being much like Putin in that he consolidated power and made himself president for life (or as long he wants), that the press is no longer free in Turkey and if you say the wrong thing you literally might disappear, we won’t say anything because of Turkeys importance to us in NATO.
Access to the Black Sea, and our bases in Turkey which are key even now in our support to Ukraine supersede the fact that Erdogan is basically a dictator and has had purges eliminating his political rivals, suppresses free speech and the media, and demands the military be loyal to him and not the nation. Erdogan and Putin are literally almost the same, in a political and MO sense.
—Regards Iran and the purges.
You can mostly thank the PRC for that. The Germans were a minor player and they are not a big tech giant. That’s not where the stuff which runs telecom or the web is manufactured or developed. It’s the PRC (mainland China) that have a huge telecom presence and firms like Huawei that build the communications backbone. But do not be alarmed! The Biden administration made sure that all those involved were released and able to head home as soon as he took office: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-iran-probe-exclusive-idUSKBN23A19B and where she’s let go: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/us/politics/huawei-meng-wanzhou.html Literally within weeks of Biden taking office, the folks responsible for what you address, and who were breaking agreements regards trade with Iran were released. You need to realize, the PRC is one of the worlds leaders when it comes to mass surveillance and tracking in real time, use of facial recognition, mass censoring, social credit scoring...
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