Posted on 11/05/2023 9:27:42 AM PST by CaptainK
I’ve checked all the Times polling in these states, and they all have large MOE. Again the question is why? There has to be a political reason to put this out now.
Crazy babys!
🙏🇺🇸🇮🇱👍
I went hunting for this poll’s methodology.
There is high quality work here.
Margin of error varies slightly for each state, but all of the states’ MOE is less than 5%.
Registration of respondents was stratified, though my recall is one of the states does not register by party. The text says when registration could not be stratified by record examination (how the voter was registered) they used a past partisan mixture model from previous polls of previous votes (How did you vote last time and self identifying). This means there is essentially no information in this poll to confirm what we have seen recently — Independents are dominant over both GOP and Dems and they are sliding to Trump. This poll does not confirm or deny that.
There is great deal of vote changing quoted. It is pretty well known that the most statistically predictive parameter for voting is party affiliation. The vote changing noted suggests strongly Independent totals were very large in these state samples.
I think actually putting Trump in prison prior to the election is an extreme long shot.
The indictments were intended to damage him, but lack the substance required to get a conviction. Even if he is convicted by a lower court, the case will surely be appealed, which takes time.
Immediately after the election, all cases will be dropped whether he wins or loses, having outlived their purpose.
Meanwhile, the better President Trump does in the primaries, the more absurdly obvious it will be to the American people that these are Stalinist show trials - thus reinforcing the narrative that Biden has weaponized the DOJ against his Republican challenger.
Weaponizing the DOJ against Republicans when the Democrat POTUS is the head of a crime family has the huge potential of backfiring, and when it does, they will suddenly drop these indictments.
I know, that’s too optimistic for FR - flame away!
Thanks for the insight on the methodology of these polls, but I’m still confused by these large MOES. Taking the worse case analysis of a 4.6 MOE, doesn’t that mean there could be an error of 9.2%
If you live in NJ and PA, there are elections on Tuesday. One is for the state Supreme Court in PA.
“I think actually putting Trump in prison prior to the election is an extreme long shot”
I agree, there is little chance of Trump going to jail. There is a good possibility he is found guilty, which I believe Trump will wear as a badge of courage, and it will help him politically
You need to brush up on your reading comprehension asshole, or just go eff off.
-- F-Joe Biden is not running (he is physically and mentally incapable of doing so)
-- F-Joe Biden can not run (his rapidly deteriorating physical and mental condition won't get any better)
-- F-Joe Biden will not run (because the Democrat/Commnist Party will not allow it as he has become a liability to the Party's politburo's primary objective to "fundamentally transform the United States of America" ... something the Democrat/Communist Party will not allow to continue much longer).
It is clearly obvious that F-Joe Biden is nothing more than a placeholder until the Democrat/Communists figure out just what the hell they're going to do -- which communist they'll run -- to continue to bring down our Republic.
If it’s a fair election Trump wins
But then again if we had fair elections Trump would be president right now.
Grow up and beat democrats instead of other Republican
It’s no wonder FR has trouble meeting FReepathon goals these days
or more likely, repulicans have won Nevada for many years, but the elections were rigged, and the polls were rigged to hide the corruption, like when they said Hillary was +15 points, and Biden was up +10 to cover for fraud
Israel will probably destroy Gaza. So the war should be over by then. The Middle East should settle down a little bit. Biden will able to pivot to the domestic issues, especially abortion.
“Interesting information, except that it’s useless:”
What do the dems do with Kamala?
She’s a stone around their neck.
My bet is Hillary.
I know; she can't win on her own, without cheating, but neither can / did Biden.
The democrats are no worried. They have drop boxes and voting machines with non-certified software connected to the internet.
“more likely, repulicans have won Nevada for many years, but the elections were rigged”
My worry is the dems have developed a way to manipulate the voting machines in key states, then no need to worry about a pandemic or absentee ballots.
Even 10% of what we want is better that getting schitt shoved down our throats for 4 more years and losing SCOTUS for decades
Yep, but I think "matured" will be the word they use. See Tagline.
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