It looks like they’re polling only demonrats.
Demographics (1,218 registered voters with 3.9% MOE):
Q: If the 2024 election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
| Response | All | Dem | Rep | Ind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 49% | 91% | 6% | 43% |
| Donald Trump | 46% | 6% | 91% | 49% |
Analysis: Biden is only +3 in a poll that is D+7, meaning that President Trump is really up by +4. Independents are breaking for Trump in this poll.
Q: How about if the candidates are::
| Response | All | Dem | Rep | Ind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 44% | 86% | 4% | 33% |
| Donald Trump | 37% | 3% | 81% | 34% |
| Robert F. Kenned, Jr. | 16% | 9% | 11% | 29% |
Analysis: There is no doubt that Kennedy is upsetting the balance on both sides. However, it is difficult to assess the impact given the D+7 skew of the poll.
The CNN poll from September used a 32/32/35 demographic split. If we adjust this poll based on the CNN demographics, the result becomes:
| Response (adjusted) | All |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 38% |
| Donald Trump | 39% |
| Robert F. Kenned, Jr. | 19% |
Adjusting the results to match the CNN September poll demographics, Biden is hurt more by RFK Jr. than President Trump is. Adjusting the two-party race puts President Trump up by +6.
CONCLUSION
Based on this D+7 skewed poll, President Trump is actually beating Joe Biden right now when the results are adjusted to prior demographic polls. The presence of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is hurting Joe Biden more than Donald Trump.
-PJ