Hurricane Idalia - Gulf of Mexico

NHC/NOAA ^ | 26 August 2023 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.

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NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

[meyer]

I just re-read my post. I feel like Joe Biden talking about his kitchen fire in Maui. Sorry about that - just that I got to endure that blizzard as a young adult.

For reference, and to regain “coolness”, I survived Hurricane Jeanne while visiting my parents in Clermont, FL several years ago. Glad to be inland for that.

[Theoria]

Elena had a similar path back in the day. Good and bad is that there isn't too many folk, but a beautiful area. If it isn't the hurricanes trying to take out whats left of old Florida, the out of staters will.

[SheepWhisperer]

“MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH”

First, thank you for the time and work you put into these threads.

Now the embarrassing question, because I SHOULD know the answer, but forgot the answer... after 40 years in South Florida....

Maximum sustained winds = 105
Forward motion = 16

Remind me please...
Does maximum sustained winds include forward motion?

...I’ll embarrassed to ask this =o/

[NautiNurse]

Max sustained winds do not include forward motion on the dirty side of the storm. For Idalia, this would be the ENE side.

[NautiNurse]

So many new Floridians. The new neighbors were watching in awe as we put up the hurricane screens yesterday. Late last night, I heard the neighbors sawing and drilling. This morning, there was virgin plywood covering their windows.

[thesearethetimes...]

So she is moving at 16 mph
with max sustained winds of 105?
Good question Sheep Whisperer!

Tatt

[rodguy911]

Yeah some of these storms are incredibly big,this one is good size as well.Small eye however.

[rodguy911]

I’m thinking this thing could become a four,what do you think?

[numberonepal]

She's starting to take on that buzz saw look. This is the first image of the eye opening.
0011 Zulu image.

[numberonepal]

I saw only one model that had sub 940mb coming ashore. The rest were over 940.

[numberonepal]

18Z run of GFS had the storm in the 960’s coming ashore. That’ll change in the 00 run.

[rodguy911]

I'm thinking this thing could become a four,what do you think?

Is it just me or does this thing have clouds assoc. with it that go from Central America to Ala. and Georgia? Quite a distance.

[NautiNurse]

There is dry air on W side entrained near the eye.

Mash image to enlarge

[rodguy911]

wow what an image,great job!!

[rodguy911]

If the baro gets below 28:00 all bets are off.

[katykelly]

Bfl

[devane617]

I’m down here on the Gulf coast about 40 miles—as the crow flys—from projected landfall. We already have so much water piled up on the beaches that it’s an ominous sight.

[rodguy911]

Yeah I see it but its gonna take an Alan carp to figure out how that interplays with intensity. I seriously wonder if AI plays a part in forecasting these things.

[NautiNurse]

Ominous. Thanks for your local report. Once the water gets pushed up into the bowl of Big Bend, there is nowhere else for it to go but inland. Stay safe!

[rodguy911]

What is your location?