Hurricane Idalia - Gulf of Mexico

NHC/NOAA ^ | 26 August 2023 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.

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[Red Badger]

85 MPH winds PLUS 14 MPH forward momentum = 99 MPH on the north side...............

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

It’s about you, not me. Why do you link everyone back to your private website?

~~~~~~ nobody cares ~~~~~

[NautiNurse]

Very good to see you checking in here. Appreciate your valuable input.

[NautiNurse]

At this moment, hurricane force winds extend 15 MI from the center of the storm. Watching the size of the hurricane wind radius carefully from Tampa Bay.

[Red Badger]

Local reports here say Gulf water temp is 88-89°F!..............

[blam]

"chuck, I don't know what you motivation is, but NautiNurse has done yeoman's work for many year, helping us here track these storms and stay informed. Can you say the same? I am guessing not Your time would be much better spent elsewhere."

I agree 100%. Go away Chuck Allen...leave NautiNurse alone.

[MplsSteve]

Amtrak Service Advisory (filed yesterday)

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/temporary-service-adjustments-in-place-due-to-tropical-storm-ida.html

Looks like all service has been stopped until the storm has passed and whatever repairs may need to be made to tracks, stations, etc.

[Godzilla]

Perhaps chuck needs a visit by the Viking kitties

[alancarp]

I appreciate your continued efforts! Been a slow season... but that’s not a bad thing.

[NautiNurse]

Idalia is tracking through the very warm Loop Current.

Gov. DeSantis presser: 30,000-40,000 linemen are pre-positioning for power restoration.

[little jeremiah]

Cats - how are you doing?

[alancarp]

Three thoughts on these models tracks:

(1) That's a pretty tight spread... that's roughly equivalent to what the eye size will be near landfall, so anybody in that path should be evacuating at this point.

(2) The NHC's "official" path estimate is the easternmost of these tracks... so the trend appears to be slightly westward... but there's obviously not a big disparity in the estimates... anybody in that area will see a good rearrangement of their lawn furnishings.

(3) Note the end of the track estimates: there's a fair chance (and Joe Bastardi is making this point) that Ida could pull a fast one and circle back to the East Coast in a few days... so interests on the Atlantic should keep watch.

[NautiNurse]

Local Products for Idalia Local Statements are prepared by National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) giving specific details for their County Warning Area (CWA) on weather conditions, evacuation decisions made by local officials, and other precautions necessary to protect life and property.

On this page are links to the Local Statements that have been released within the last 8 hours, as well as links to the homepages of the issuing Weather Forecast Offices.

Issuing WFO Homepage	Local Impacts	Local Statement
Key West, FL	Threats and Impacts	1057 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Melbourne, FL	Threats and Impacts	1113 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Jacksonville, FL	Threats and Impacts	1117 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Columbia, SC	Local Tropical Website	1117 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Wilmington, NC	Local Tropical Website	1120 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Tampa Bay Area, FL	Threats and Impacts	1122 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Miami, FL	Threats and Impacts	1127 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Atlanta, GA	Threats and Impacts	1129 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Charleston, SC	Local Tropical Website	1133 AM EDT Tue Aug 29
Tallahassee, FL	Threats and Impacts	1134 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 /1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 29

These statements also available at weather.gov.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for your analysis. Re: forecast track loop, recall 2004 terriible Ivan came back as “Little Ivan” for an encore.

[Golden Eagle]

Yes, it’s definitely ticked slightly west the last day or so. Hopefully stays on current track as that is by far the least inhabited part of Florida where it’s aiming right now, especially coastland.

[MplsSteve]

Per Florida State Park website, there are A LOT of closed parks...

https://www.floridastateparks.org/StormUpdates

[Honest Nigerian]

Go chuck y’self?
Pi$$ing contest$ have no place in this forum.

[MplsSteve]

Current conditions at Fort Jefferson in the Dry Tortugas (IIRC, that’s the closest land to Idalia)

Rain
85 degrees
Winds from the south at 37mph
Humidity 94%
Barometric Pressure 29.76 and steady
1 inch of rain reported in the last 6 hours

[mewzilla]

Bastardi related...

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1696512188070891704

[NautiNurse]

About 90 min. ago, Idalia was 120 MI W of the Dry Tortugas, heading N.