Dems have solid locks on all minority voters, single women of all races, college educated voters, and Millennials/Gen-Z. And many of these locks are huge, 70/30 or greater.
Their pool is increasing as ours is shrinking. They wake up on the morning of Election Day with 257 EVs already in the bag (as well as millions ahead in the national popular vote, as meaningless as this is).
2016 was an aberration, unlikely to be repeated.
Gen-Z in particular, nihilistic and despondent over their inability to ever achieve the American Dream (thanks in part to policies enacted by their parents and grandparents) will embrace every far-left platform position presented to them. Climate change, gun control, tax the rich, unlimited abortion, "woke" restrictions on the First Amendment, you name it. They love all of this stuff. They have nothing to lose by voting the rest of us into a dystopian Dark Ages. They will have their revenge.
And, as 2022 demonstrated, Gen-Z learned how to vote and enjoyed doing it. They will come out in numbers.
I support DeSantis over Trump because Trump can't win. DeSantis *might* win and "might" is better than "can't." But, honestly, I think he'd likely lose as well.
The GOP will be wandering in the wilderness for a generation. People may be fleeing California with their feet for Florida but when it comes to voting, the country will vote to be California.
That was a dark post.
I wish I could disagree with it—but my only quibble is that the Democrats have mastered the art of cheating—so the demographics are irrelevant at the end of the day since there is no reliable way to assess them.
“And, as 2022 demonstrated, Gen-Z learned how to vote and enjoyed doing it. They will come out in numbers.”
This, as much as anything else, is going to be responsible for a political re-alignment on a national level. Millennials and Gen-Z are not becoming more conservative in the traditional sense. Some of them have become more libertarian, but they support legalized weed, abortion, trans and gay rights. It may be possible for the GOP to make inroads with this demographic, but that will mean shelving the culture war issues and focusing on less regulation, less taxes.