Don’t forget, Ukraine was seen by China as important to extend BRI into Europe, even to the point of China doing a trade deal with Ukraine while Ukraine was negotiating a parallel deal with the EU. A third deal, with Russia, was already in place.
China WANTED Ukraine to have all three deals.
Russia actually scuppered China’s pitch by persistently acting like a jealous controlling boyfriend over the EU-Ukraine deal.
Then by invading Donbas and Crimea, Russia set back the BRI into Eastern Europe by a decade at the minimum.
And now Russia has completely fubared ALL viable routes for BRI into Western Europe.
Nobody’s going to want to talk to Moscow, and Belarus has been bending over backwards to alienate Europe for thirty years under Lukashenko.
This is why Russia is getting pats on the back but LITERALLY NOTHING MORE from Beijing. Beijing is seriously, seriously pissed off at Putin. It won’t bollock him openly but it’s already added its signature to the list of countries accusing Russia of starting this war, and it’s already talking to the ‘Stans.
Did you see how, apart from Lukashenko, nobody at a recent CSTO summit wanted to stand anywhere near Putin? He’s so toxic that even the Tajikistan leader is getting bolshy.
How have they got the balls to do it? Clue: China’s got their back and Putin can’t do anything about it. This isn’t like Chechnya.
Thanks for that description of the situation.
I’ve spent the last hour looking for a map I recall seeing
detailed map of the BRI layout in the Black Sea; Ukraine was depicted as a secondary distribution hub.
The maps I found today show Moscow and Istanbul as the major nodes on the route, with no lines to Ukraine. The route seems to be shifting South. The Chicoms have apparently been redrawing the map since Russia’s invasion.
Russia and China have never been very friendly for very long; their ostensible cooperation, I suspect, is tenuous. Nato’s incursion into Ukraine initially strengthened their ties.
Nevertheless, I’d wager that Putin is one of the few world leaders who sees the economic stranglehold this threatens. Trump understands it too.
But Europe welcomes this garrote around its neck—for the sake of ‘stability.’ So does Biden and the Washington global think-tankers. For them, keeping Trump out is critical, he’d over-turn the apple cart.
If the rift between Putin and China is opening, Russia could find itself fighting on two fronts—the second largely hidden. This may explain Zelinsky’s willingness to go on, and Nato’s continued help. The cavalry is coming.
With one hegemonic power, China, controlling world trade, we’ll be f&^d, but the people presently steering this calamity plan to get rich enough to be in the ruling class.
Anyway, that’s my understanding of things. I’m way out on a limb, so I’ll defer to your obviously superior grasp of the situation.
Yes, I imagine Xi is Pixxed as hexx. It definitely makes sense for him to approach the Stans. Regarding the Stans, a million more educated and working age young men have now fled Putin’s stupid ego war. A lot of them have gone to the Stans. If this war does not end soon with peacefulness returning to Russia, they are unlikely to return soon either. I saw an interesting report by a 30 something Russian who was sad and lonely, so he sought out other Russian exiles. He now has a coffee group of about 450 self-exiled Russians.
He estimates only about 5% have returned because they just got too homesick. He says maybe another 5% have returned because of family or their business needs in Russia. When asked what would encourage him to return, he said: 1) Putin gone. 2) A reasonable stable government in charge. 3) Most Russians showing they have learned EMPATHY.
It doesn’t look like all that is going to happen any time soon. So, how will these educated, mobile, youngish Russians influence development in the Stans. Will they contribute the kind of energy and creativity that all the immigrants who came to the US have contributed over the years. Will the Chinese find them a resource they can encourage to work with this belt and road initiative?
I think there are enough smart, suspicious minds in Ukraine and Europe that the influence of China there will not be excessively dangerous. I am sure Zelenskyy and Erdogan among others know what they are dealing with and can find a balance of caution and cooperation that may lead to “good” business for both sides of the deals to be negotiated as B&R moves forward.