Thanks for that description of the situation.
I’ve spent the last hour looking for a map I recall seeing
detailed map of the BRI layout in the Black Sea; Ukraine was depicted as a secondary distribution hub.
The maps I found today show Moscow and Istanbul as the major nodes on the route, with no lines to Ukraine. The route seems to be shifting South. The Chicoms have apparently been redrawing the map since Russia’s invasion.
Russia and China have never been very friendly for very long; their ostensible cooperation, I suspect, is tenuous. Nato’s incursion into Ukraine initially strengthened their ties.
Nevertheless, I’d wager that Putin is one of the few world leaders who sees the economic stranglehold this threatens. Trump understands it too.
But Europe welcomes this garrote around its neck—for the sake of ‘stability.’ So does Biden and the Washington global think-tankers. For them, keeping Trump out is critical, he’d over-turn the apple cart.
If the rift between Putin and China is opening, Russia could find itself fighting on two fronts—the second largely hidden. This may explain Zelinsky’s willingness to go on, and Nato’s continued help. The cavalry is coming.
With one hegemonic power, China, controlling world trade, we’ll be f&^d, but the people presently steering this calamity plan to get rich enough to be in the ruling class.
Anyway, that’s my understanding of things. I’m way out on a limb, so I’ll defer to your obviously superior grasp of the situation.
Thanks! I wouldn’t say I’m an expert in it, but I am very well travelled and my job is very closely linked to “horizon scanning” and “hazop”.
Yes it’s going to shift south, which leaves Moscow pretty muuch at the end of a road where they’re buying a lot but exporting nothing remarkable. Because they don’t make anything.
Muscovy is not as important if it’s a terminal node. And redundancy of the BRI network required Muscovy to be a path to somewhere else, not a dead end.
Turkey benefits enormously but unlike Putin, Erdogan knows that a Western partnered independent Ukraine is way better for BRI business in the long term than Belarus 2.0.