While BRI if successfully pursued will enhance China’s international recognition/influence, I hope the desire for successful business will also temper China’s aggressive tendencies regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea. It will be interesting to see how China’s foreign policy will develop regarding their interest in parts of Siberia. Especially if Putin is forced to end his military action/war with unfavorable terms.
You sound like Bill Clinton or Kissinger.
Don’t forget, Ukraine was seen by China as important to extend BRI into Europe, even to the point of China doing a trade deal with Ukraine while Ukraine was negotiating a parallel deal with the EU. A third deal, with Russia, was already in place.
China WANTED Ukraine to have all three deals.
Russia actually scuppered China’s pitch by persistently acting like a jealous controlling boyfriend over the EU-Ukraine deal.
Then by invading Donbas and Crimea, Russia set back the BRI into Eastern Europe by a decade at the minimum.
And now Russia has completely fubared ALL viable routes for BRI into Western Europe.
Nobody’s going to want to talk to Moscow, and Belarus has been bending over backwards to alienate Europe for thirty years under Lukashenko.
This is why Russia is getting pats on the back but LITERALLY NOTHING MORE from Beijing. Beijing is seriously, seriously pissed off at Putin. It won’t bollock him openly but it’s already added its signature to the list of countries accusing Russia of starting this war, and it’s already talking to the ‘Stans.
Did you see how, apart from Lukashenko, nobody at a recent CSTO summit wanted to stand anywhere near Putin? He’s so toxic that even the Tajikistan leader is getting bolshy.
How have they got the balls to do it? Clue: China’s got their back and Putin can’t do anything about it. This isn’t like Chechnya.
(addendum to previous post)
China has led on the peace proposals and offered to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia withdraws.
People, join the dots. For all the anti NATO rhetoric, China wants a reliable BRI gateway into Europe and sees that being Ukraine. But it doesn’t see a Ukraine under Russian control being useful to the plan. They need Ukraine to have independence from Moscow; a second Belarus behind Putin’s new Iron Curtain is antithetical to their ambition.