Look, you ask me to “consider the source”...and I am hearing two different groups of sources each with pom-poms chanting for one side or another. So I look at the value of the Rubble. I have no illusion that it tells me the entire story of the Russian economy, and I do know that Central banks always manipulate their fiat currency. This happens for every country. Countries that are falling apart however have their currencies collapse and their central banks are helpless to stop it. I note this is not the case with Russia, at least not yet. Not because I think I know everything that can be said, but because I don’t have any better info than what I can get myself and I know something about forex markets.
Agreed, I will say the ruble is a bit of an oddity when it comes to currency, volume is low so manipulation is easier not that I know anything
What I suspect is the one and two sources of income for Russia is petro chemicals and military exports
Their income from petro is down and what we don’t know is the difference between net and gross. I am sure they are selling lots of oil, esp to China and India but at what price and what is the overhead on that
Distilled products is where they are really hurting. China and India have their won refineries. They are happy to buy the oil and then sell the distilled or use them either way they are making out
What matters to the world is that the oil is still out there. Now that might change as destruction of infrastructure grows so we will see
The other big hit is natural gas their sales are way down, they do t have the liquified gas infrastructure
Military sales I would shine have gone to near zero I think they need all they have including stuff made for export originally so there is a hurt
Then there are the banking and frozen asset issues
They may be getting parts through but I imagine the price is at a premium
Then there is their workforce which is already demographically challenged and getting worse as they pull working age men out of market along with those who fled.
Lastly there is the cost of the war, people now are having to be paid and supported rather than producing, and actuall cost of the war. Those missiles they like to launch are not cheap, and the expensive kit they have lost are not easily replaced. Despite what Putin may think he does not have the power of the Soviet Union to produce at anywhere near that level sanctions or no sanctions
So do I know anything, no, but Their expenses are way up, their revenue is down
And their reported numbers on deficit spending revenue…. are not great and that is what they are reporting
I liken it to China and their numbers.