No they don’t know that. It’ll get you thrown in jail in Russia if you use the term “War” to describe this “Special Military Operation”. They never intended for this “Special Military Operation” to last as long as it has. Some massive meatgrinders like Bakhmut have shown why War is such a horrible way to solve problems and why anyone who starts one will soon find out that they don’t get to decide when it ends. Russia never thought that Ukraine would be fully mobilized as a country for War like has happened. And what Ukraine doesn’t realize very well is that Russia is far from fully engaged in this conflict. If they poke Moscow/Putin too much then they risk escalation on the Russian side to be fully mobilized and engaged in All Out War where every possible weapon that anyone could think of using will be utilized by Russia.
I sincerely hope that Russia doesn’t go “All Out War”. There’s no telling where that would take this conflict if that were to happen. What would be better is to get the Russians and Ukrainians to have peace talks ASAP and to keep having them & for us to get some independent peacekeepers put into all of the disputed areas to have this conflict put on ice & give cooler heads a chance to prevail.
If Russia is only 3% “in” then it’s obvious that Ukraine cannot win unless Russia gives up. That’s why the outcome of this War for Ukraine depends upon them not provoking Russia into going “All Out War”. I know this sucks for anyone peace-loving and in favor of the Rule of Law & real freedom & human rights. But, that’s the situation now.
The question here is: how insane are the Russians?
Are they willing to commit national suicide by lobbing nukes into Ukraine?
Do they fantasize for even one second that they can use the most gawdawful weapons against Ukraine and not suffer those same weapons used against Moscow and St. Petersburg?
I don't think so, not for a minute, because Vlad the Invader is Old Soviet KGB, and the Old Soviets were bullies, amoral empire builders and massive oppressors of weaker peoples.
The Old Soviets responded to weakness with aggression and to strength with respect.
Whatever they threatened, they were never insane or suicidal, and would not risk the MADness of nuclear war.
Today, Vlad the Invader is old and by some accounts he's also quite physically sick.
But is he insane enough to destroy the very country he's spent his life defending, Russia?
I don't think so.
Peace talks are what happens after Putin leaves Ukraine - all of it.
“All out war”? The US has 5000 Abrams tanks. How many have been given to Ukraine? 31 have been promised. The fact is Russia would lose an “all out war” even more badly than the current bungled “Special Military Operation” and Putin knows it.
If “peace talks” are indeed the way then we must call on Russian invaders to leave Ukraine and go home to Moscow. They can “talk” from there for eternity without mass murdering any more Ukrainian women and children in the historic Russian way.