I'm not a economic analyst, just an American who emigrated to Nippon 6 months ago and and hopes to retire here.
My own hunch is there is plenty of upside here as long as the world economy improves and an era of peace returns. Here are my thoughts -- and would love to hear other FReeper perspective yea or nay.
A Strong Republic and Economy -- You have to be impressed by Japan's level of automation, city planning, transportation (good mix of autos and trains), very little crime, hardworking & educated workers, a better than average citizen's health, in terms of food, sports, and affordable health testing/patient education, and their hospitality to customers and foreigners.
Energy -- There are practically no fossil fuel sources in the country. So Japan is forced to buy from the Russians now that Bidung has severely curtailed U.S. oil production. Stopping the Ukraine war will help a lot. Putting Trump back in the White House will help even more...
Construction & Home Building -- Japan is the master builder of earthquake-safe city buildings and well-designed modular (though smaller) single-family homes whose sales seem to be booming as suburban (or maybe semi-urban) Japan grows.
Tourism -- China put a big hurt to Japan when they released the Covid virus. Indeed, back in 2019 almost 10 million tourists from China (mostly well-to-do Chinese) came to Japan (see the chart). Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong make up two-thirds of the tourism market here. And odds are that business will come back nicely once the global economy recovers. See chart below.
The Automobile -- I gotta believe the U.S. economy and Bidung's crazy and failing push to electric cars has to end soon. And that will allow frustrated Americans to buy the kind of ICE and hybrid sedans and SUVs that Toyota, Honda, and Nissan excel in manufacturing. The local market is close to 50% hybrid now -- but that's prudent given the high cost of gasoline.
Population -- Is a lower population in Japan that much of a concern? Seems to me we're on the verge of greater automation era and AI/Machine Learning. America's population is growing, but I think the lower economic classes are the ones whose family sizes are growing the most. Immigration -- I read a comment on this thread talking about the threat of "immigrant scum" coming into Japan. Here I can claim some first-hand knowledge. My wife (former Japanese national) submitted no less than 100 pages of documentation (detailed forms, photographs, bank records, you name it) to get approval to emigrate here. This is a country that really cares about the quality of immigrants they let into the country.
Medical Innovation -- Just yesterday we joined 15 retired Japanese for an auto trip into mountains to see the flowering dogwood and azalea trees in a public park. The driver of the van was a retired Toshiba engineer. And he runs a small business that sells and services used Japanese-made cat-scan and MRI machines to countries in South America and Asia. With steady demand for the latest medical machines, there's a lively market for second-hand high end medical machines.
Separately, I recently had some stones removed from my bladder and so I got to see the Japanese hospital system u[ close. In prep for my non-invasive operation, a matter of only two hours I was whisked through several different tests, x-rays, etc. That morning, this teaching hospital must have processed 500 patience. It was a very efficient, factory-like production.
So these are my quick thoughts.
