What Absentee Voting Looked Like In All 50 States ("Biden indeed would not have won without mail votes")

Five Thirty Eight ^ | February 9, 2021 | Nathaniel Rakich and Jasmine Mithani

[DoodleBob]

We may have seen it coming, but now we know for sure: The coronavirus pandemic made the 2020 election look different from any other election in recent memory. Due to the massive expansion of mail voting, a staggering number of Americans cast their ballots before Election Day. And due to then-President Donald Trump’s false claims that mail voting would lead to election fraud, a huge partisan gap emerged between ballots cast by mail and ballots cast on Election Day.

First, the share of voters casting mail ballots far exceeded that of any other recent national election, and the share of voters who reported going to a polling place on Election Day dropped to its lowest point in at least 30 years. According to preliminary findings from the 2020 Survey on the Performance of American Elections, a poll of 18,200 registered voters run by MIT political scientist Charles Stewart III, 46 percent of 2020 voters voted by mail or absentee — up from 21 percent in 2016, which at the time was considered high. Only 28 percent of people reported voting on Election Day — less than half of the 60 percent who did so in 2016. In-person early voting also reached a modern high (26 percent), although the change from 2016 (when it was 19 percent) was less dramatic.

The shifts took place all across the country, too. According to the SPAE, 47 states and the District of Columbia saw their rates of mail voting rise from 2016 to 2020. The only exceptions were the three states that have held predominantly mail elections for years: Colorado, Oregon and Washington. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest spikes in mail voting occurred in places that went the furthest to encourage mail voting (i.e., those that automatically sent every registered voter a ballot), especially those with little history of mail voting prior to 2020. These include New Jersey (where only 7 percent of voters voted by mail in 2016, but 86 percent did so in 2020), the District of Columbia (12 percent in 2016 versus 70 percent in 2020) and Vermont (17 percent in 2016 versus 72 percent in 2020).

By contrast, the five states that clung to the requirement that voters provide a non-pandemic-related excuse in order to vote by mail (Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas) saw some of the smallest increases. For example, Texas’s rate of mail voting in 2020 was only 11 percent (barely changed from 7 percent in 2016), while Mississippi’s was only 10 percent (just a tad higher than the 4 percent in 2016).

The week of the election already gave us a vivid illustration of how blue absentee votes were and how red Election Day votes were. (You’ll recall that initial results from states that counted absentee votes first, such as North Carolina, were overly rosy for President Biden, and states that counted in-person votes first, such as Pennsylvania, were misleadingly favorable for Trump.) But over the past month, FiveThirtyEight has collected data on the partisanship of absentee and Election Day votes from state election officials — and the numbers are striking.

We have data for only 15 of the 50 states,¹ but it tells a consistent story: Biden won the absentee vote in 14 out of the 15 states (all but Texas), and Trump won the Election Day vote in 14 out of the 15 as well (all but Connecticut).²

Indeed, Trump won the in-person vote even in deep-blue states like Hawaii (by 71 percent to 27 percent).³ He even won the Election Day vote in Biden’s home state of Delaware, though it was extremely close there (49.25 percent for Trump versus 49.19 percent for Biden). Conversely, Biden won the absentee vote even in reliably red states like Arkansas (61 percent to 37 percent) and South Carolina (60 percent to 39 percent). If we had data for all 50 states, we would likely see Trump winning the Election Day vote in almost all of them and Biden winning the absentee vote in almost all of them.

Absentee votes broke blue, Election Day votes red

How absentee and Election Day votes in the 2020 presidential election broke down by candidate in the 15 states tracking results by voting method

	Absentee			Election Day
State	Biden	Trump	Margin	Biden	Trump	Margin	Gap
Pennsylvania	76%	23%	D+54	34%	65%	R+32	85pt
Maryland	81	17	D+65	39	57	R+18	83
Hawaii†	66	32	D+33	27	71	R+44	77
North Carolina	70	28	D+42	33	65	R+32	75
Rhode Island	79	19	D+60	44	54	R+10	70
Arkansas	61	37	D+24	26	70	R+43	67
Oklahoma	58	40	D+18	26	72	R+46	65
Delaware	79	20	D+59	49	49	EVEN	59
Iowa	57	41	D+16	27	70	R+43	59
South Carolina	60	39	D+21	31	67	R+35	57
Connecticut	77	22	D+56	49	49	EVEN	55
Alaska	58	39	D+19	30	66	R+36	54
Georgia	65	34	D+30	38	60	R+23	53
Arizona*	52	47	D+5	32	66	R+34	38
Texas*	48	51	R+3	39	59	R+20	17

*Arizona and Texas do not distinguish between mail votes and in-person early votes.
†Hawaii does not distinguish between Election Day votes and in-person early votes.

Source: State election officials

At the very least, the magnitude of this divide would have shocked anyone looking at the same data for 2016. Of these 15 states, 11⁴ also broke down the results of the 2016 presidential election by voting method. And although absentee votes in 2016 were consistently more Democratic than Election Day votes (just as in 2020), the average gap between them was much smaller than in 2020 — just 14 points in 2016 compared with 65 points in 2020.

In 2016, there wasn’t much of a gap in how people voted

How absentee and Election Day votes in the 2016 presidential election broke down by candidate in the 11 states tracking results by voting method

	Absentee			Election Day
State	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Gap
Iowa	52%	42%	D+10	35%	57%	R+22	32pt
Maryland	69	25	D+44	54	39	D+15	30
South Carolina	48	49	EVEN	38	57	R+19	18
North Carolina	46	49	R+3	39	55	R+16	13
Rhode Island	60	33	D+27	54	39	D+14	12
Hawaii	66	27	D+38	59	33	D+26	12
Oklahoma	34	60	R+26	28	66	R+38	12
Arkansas	39	56	R+17	32	61	R+29	12
Delaware	56	40	D+16	53	42	D+11	5
Georgia	47	49	R+2	45	51	R+6	4
Alaska	37	52	R+15	35	52	R+17	2

Source: State election officials

Put another way: In 2016, several states had negligible differences between absentee and Election Day votes, but in 2020, even the smallest differences were gaping chasms. For example, in Alaska (where in 2016 Trump won absentees by 15 points and Election Day votes by 17), absentee votes in 2020 were Biden+19 and Election Day votes were Trump+36. And in Georgia (where in 2016 Trump won absentees by 2 points and Election Day votes by 6), absentees in 2020 were Biden+30 and Election Day votes were Trump+23.

It’s not hard to see why Trump, then, in his desperation to hold onto power, claimed that Democrats used mail ballots to steal the election from him. Biden indeed would not have won without mail votes, but there is no evidence that a significant number of these votes were cast fraudulently. Rather, the increase in their use was a response to the pandemic — one that was even encouraged by most election officials — and the fact that these votes were so Democratic is very likely due to Trump himself. By casting doubt on the security of mail ballots, he all but ensured that most of his voters would cast their votes using traditional methods, leaving the pool of absentee ballots strikingly — but not surprisingly — blue. (Paired with Republicans’ legal efforts to throw out entire batches of absentee ballots, this may even have been a deliberate strategy to improve Trump’s chances by disenfranchising Democratic voters.)

As a result, it will be interesting to see whether these sudden changes surrounding mail voting represent a new normal or prove to be just a blip in history. Some states are thinking about making their expansions of vote-by-mail permanent, while other states have shown little interest — still others are even considering bills to restrict absentee voting. But given that mail voting can make campaign operatives’ lives easier, we might expect more Republicans to embrace it now that Trump is no longer president; then again, that may depend on how much influence he wields in the GOP going forward. According to the SPAE, 65 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans who voted by mail in 2020 said they were “very likely” to vote by mail again (though, of course, it’s not fully up to them). So, perhaps mail voting will maintain some popularity among members of both parties, but with an even wider division between them.

[TECTopcat]

< What is the plan for WINNING?>

Sadly their is no viable plan, Trump and Trump’s advisors do not get that unless we either beat them at VBM, vote by mail, -a month for them to gather votes and/or cheat or stop VBM , it doesn’t really matter who is on the top of the GOP tix we lose. i campaigned for Trump, donated money and worked my butt off for him but I am disappointed his response has been tepid at best and instead does the name calling bit on DeSantis that only pisses off independent women voters so they can keep it close enough so they can use VBM to win/cheat.

[ByteMercenary]

Your list is accurate. Until most or all of those schemes are eliminated there will be no fair elections in the USA.

2020 was the last pre-production test of the demorat’s balloting schemes. A few loose ends like wrong sized ballots and continuous ballots with the same signature (obvious copies) have been addressed with modified procedures. 2024 will have the full application of all the demorat ballot manipulation procedures in place. I expect the 2024 results to look something like this:

R voters: 75mm, R ballots: 75mm
D voters: 62mm, D ballots: 83mm

[Don@VB]

>>
< What is the plan for WINNING?>

Sadly their is no viable plan,<<<

It would be nice if Republicans could employ the same tactics as Democrats, but these tactics range from sketchy to blatantly criminal. Add to that the way justice is administered according to party affiliation, and Republicans will be prosecuted en masse.

[srmanuel]

Republicans can and should use the same tactics as Democrats.

Ballot Harvesting is legal in several states, does the GOP have any plan for ballot harvesting ???

No, they do not, it’s always been vote on election day, it’s the classic definition of insanity to keep doing the same things and expect a different result.

Ballot harvesting is just one issue.

The other issue IMO is this dedication to getting rid of the machines that count votes, if you got rid of all the machines tomorrow and did nothing to counter ballot harvesting and other voting issues, the results would not change. People seem to believe that hand counting would be more accurate than machines, involving humans in a repetitive process like vote counting, lends itself to mistakes.

Vote counting machines, early voting and ballot harveting are 3 issues that are not going away, either you embrace them or your cease and to exist.

[Apple Pan Dowdy]

I don’t understand how your suggestion of our side accepting (and I assume you mean participating in ) early voting and mail-in voting going to make a difference. The real cheating is in the “counting” of the votes.

Please explain.

[Don@VB]

Voting early may be mostly ok. My problem is with mail in ballots. I have to believe it is riddled with fraud on so many levels, and lax oversight is simply compounding the problem. As they say, “It’s so easy a caveman could do it.”

[Don@VB]

Regarding counting: They may or may not be counting honestly, but a lot of the ballots they are counting are fraudulent in some way, shape,or form.

[DouglasKC]

THere is no way a Democrat wins Georgia WITHOUT cheating.

[Don@VB]

Ballot Harvesting is legal in some states, but I’ll bet it’s going to be proven a bit more legal for Democrats. Especially in areas with woke DA’s.

[srmanuel]

So what, if you have no plan to deal with ballot harvesting the Republicans will continue to lose elections.

It is the classic definition of insanity to repeat the same actions over and over and expect a different outcome.

Constant complaining about Democrats cheating is getting you nowhere, either play the game with the rules that exist or go extinct.

[BDParrish]

I echo the question asked by another here. How does our “acceptance” of these methods make any difference? Their extra ballots are held by them in readiness to be found in sufficient numbers to overwhelm the Republican count regardless of when or how Republican ballots are cast.

Am I missing something?

[Apple Pan Dowdy]

”Voting early may be mostly ok. My problem is with mail in ballots”

You are absolutely right about that. I just got the impression that you were saying if we gave in to it and just did absentee voting ourselves that it would solve the problem. I guess I misunderstood you. 😁

[zeestephen]

We lost GA, WI, and AZ, by a total of 43,000 votes.

We have no idea how many ineligible votes were cast in those three states, and no idea how many ballots had no verifiable chain of custody in those three states.

Winning those three states would have tied the Electoral College at 270-270.

The election would have gone to the House of Representatives, where each state gets just one vote, and Trump would have won easily.

The GOP cannot prove that Trump won the 2020 election.

However - the Democrat Party cannot prove that Trump lost the 2020 election.

[Drew68]

How does our “acceptance” of these methods make any difference?

Until we have the power to change voting laws which first requires winning elections, we embrace the same tools that the Democrats are using.

We’re ceding to them a massive advantage by our reluctance to use mail voting, early voting, and ballot harvesting.

I mailed my vote in for Trump to Florida in 2020. I voted for him early in Florida in 2016. He won that state both times.

[zeestephen]

Conservatives and Republicans need to accept the painful reality that we are outnumbered.

One third of the voters in 2020 were non-white.

72% of non-whites voted for Biden.

25% voted for Trump.

58% of whites voted for Trump.

We need to get 60% of the white vote just to be competitive.

The last time a Republican got 60% of the white vote was 1988.

[BDParrish]

You do not understand the problem.
The VBM scheme allows extra bogus votes to be counted.
The number of extra votes is added when it is known how many are needed.

Are you suggesting that our side is unwilling to manufacture extra votes? You are correct about that.
Are you suggesting that if our side merely votes early our totals will be more? What do you think is happening? I don’t wish to be disrespectful brother, but forgive me if I cannot hide the feeling that you are being naive.
Are you suggesting that going around and collecting boxes of legitimate real ballots and delivering them will change the Democrat margin of victory? That is not true.

I know it may be difficult to face, but until you are honest with yourself about what is really going on, you have no advice for us. And if you think that there is even a remote possibility that we are ever going to fight fire with fire, I would appreciate hearing how you think that might be brought about.

I understood the strategy suggested by Trump and by Kari Lake in Arizona. Wait till election day and overwhelm the fraud machine with sheer numbers. Lake was delighted and optimistic right up till the end because her polling showed an unbeatable margin in all the key places. She had no clue what the Dimwits’ counter tactic would be. It was working until key polling places had “tabulation issues’ and just enough of those issues to give the election to the Dimwits. As Charlie Kirk said, it was a “traffic jam by design.”

Now, when you suggest we let them know our numbers as early as possible, What do you think they will do?!

[DoodleBob]

Conservatives and Republicans need to accept the painful reality that we are outnumbered. One third of the voters in 2020 were non-white.

Ben Carson and Clarence Thomas et al will be surprised by this assessment.

[zeestephen]

Re: "Ben Carson and Clarence Thomas et al will be surprised by this assessment."

I do not know why they would be surprised.

88% of Black voters did not vote for Trump.

The Black presidential vote has been 90% Democrat or higher since the 1970s.