Posted on 04/25/2023 10:51:46 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I don’t care who the Republicans nominate, I’m voting for them. Everyone in the field, now or in the future, will have my vote over any Democrat on the planet. That does not begin to capture how gleefully I will vote against Joe Biden or whatever other Democrat they put up there should the left-wing industrial complex be unable to “Weekend at Bernie’s” him to their nomination, but really nothing can capture that enthusiasm. It probably can’t capture your either. But does not mean the 2024 election is a formality, far from it. As I always say, never spike the football on the 5-yard-line. November is a long way away, and polls indicate there is a huge swath of the voting public who doesn’t want any of the leading candidates. That doesn’t mean that’s how it will end, but the 2024 election is shaping up to be the election no one wants, at least as of right now.
I get that this is an unpopular opinion – tempering enthusiasm with reality always is – but it needs to be said, so I’ll say it. Polls show a majority of the population does not want Joe Biden to run again, which probably makes you smile. But they also show a large majority don’t want Donald Trump to either. That is quite possibly data you will dismiss.
Both are true, and both need to at least be considered if you’re going to cast a vote in the primary next year.
I have to start off by pointing out that polling data at this point is only useful in understanding where the public is now, and not a single vote will be cast for 8 months, so…
To that end, however, knowing where the public is now is useful information to have. Keeping tabs on that allows you to track where sentiment is going and can allow campaigns to shift tactics to try to right the ship. Only we have 2 leading candidates who’ve never done that and likely never will.
A new NBC News poll (I know, but they’re all about the same in general and they asked from more in-depth questions that are telling) shows Joe Biden is wildly unpopular – only a 41 percent approval rating versus a 54 percent disapproval. Ideally, that bodes well for Republicans, but Biden and Democrats were as unpopular before the 2022 elections and we all know how well that worked out. Being unpopular doesn’t mean the other side wins if the other side is just as unpopular too, or they only offer “We’re not them!” as a campaign message. You need to give people in the middle (those who decide elections) something to vote for, not just against, or they’ll stay home.
The poll also asked if Biden should run for reelection, only 26 percent said yes with 70 percent saying no. Again, seemingly good news for Republicans. But they asked the same question about Trump, with 35 percent saying yes and 60 percent saying no.
Those are better numbers for Trump, but not great. A lot of people in that race, with that lack of enthusiasm, would stay home, and Democrats are very good at motivating their base to show up. That’s a problem for Republicans.
Another problem for Republicans and the Trump train is the way people “feel” about him compared to Biden. It’s a stupid metric, but it is true that a lot of people vote based on feelings and not logic.
When asked for their feelings about Biden, 38 percent had positive feelings and 48 percent answered negatively. The numbers were almost the same for Democrats, with 36 percent positive and 46 percent negative. If you just heard those numbers you’d feel pretty good about 2024, but there’s always another side to this sort of coin.
For Republicans, only 33 percent had positive feelings about them and 43 percent had negative ones. That’s sort of in line with Democrats, within the margins of error when taken together. And for Trump, there was 34 percent positive feelings, which isn’t that far from Biden, when taking into consideration the margin of error there too.
However, when it comes to negative feelings about Trump, he stands at 53 percent, far and away worse than the others. That’s a reality with which he’s going to have to contend, and how he chooses to do it, if he chooses to do it at all, will be the deal-breaker for him in 2024.
There is a large percentage of the population who don’t follow politics at all, but they vote. They get what information they do get from the left-wing media, which dwarfs conservative media in total numbers by a huge ratio. They may agree with Trump and Republicans on some issues, but if they don’t hear about it or those are issues that motivate their votes, it won’t matter one bit.
What the Trump team has to reconcile with is the fact that there are a lot of people who are simply exhausted by him. He was fresh and new in 2016, the type of candidate I’d always wanted but never thought I’d see – one who talks like a normal person and doesn’t pull punches or point with their thumb. He’s still that guy, but we’ve all seen that guy. He needs to articulate what he wants to do as president a second time, with specifics than simply make it great again.
That new candidate smell is gone from Trump, he has to offer more than just him. He’s got his base, and they are wildly loyal to him. But they are nowhere near enough to win a presidential election. Biden is in the same boat, but his team knows he’s less disliked than Trump is and they’re counting on that and the searing hatred for Trump Democrats created to carry him over the line. It might. Unless Trump stops exclusively preaching to his choir and firing down his own trench at Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (using the detestable Joy Reid, of all people, to do it) and focus on what he will do differently while launching salvos at Democrats and only Democrats.
“Democrats are very good at motivating their base to show up. That’s a problem for Republicans.”
^
Just put medical Marijuana on the same ballot: works every time!
😉 I don’t think we’ll have to make that choice. Trump has been dropping a lot of hints of what’s going to happen. Like when he was recently talking about nuclear being the greatest threat and said “we may not have 2 years. We may have to move sooner” or words to that effect.
Then he was talking in an informal conversation with some UFC guy Recently and the conversation went like Trump saying the 2016 election was big but 2024 will be bigger and the UFC guy said yes 2024 will be the biggest so far and then Trump said “ well you’re probably right because it won’t be traditional “ then he immediately pivoted to something else.
As I’ve said before I imagine we will be voting with paper ballots and the election will be administered by the military. No way we have another “traditional” election.
“There are other people in the country saying almost exactly the same thing (just one word is different)”
A third of that other half is saying, “You mean I get a blunt in exchange for signing a blank ballot and giving it to you? Deal! Yay, ballot harvesting.”
Yes, but the Republicans take that as your approval to pick the most left leaning candidate possible. They do it every single time.
Really? Frankly, I’m tired of Trump and his attacking other Republicans. Trump is the only person in America who has lost/can lose to Biden.
Why attack Florida? It’s one of the best run states in the country, and an example of why conservatives should run the nation.
I vote conservative, and have no interest in joining a cult, Trump’s or anyone else’s, and I’m tired of it being always about him.
Pretty much until I get some action from the GOP/RNC. The house that “we” have majority. Nothing. The only person trying to do something is Scott Presler. Trump is the best. I’m not including you in “us”
We have the equivalent of an oligarchy when an establishment candidate of either party wins. And, I'm not going back to a Bush or Romney-like candidate that refuses to keep his promises.
If you can’t see that the election was blatantly stolen and rigged for basement Biden then I’m wasting my time debating you.
I wish you luck in your endeavor to elect more Rinos.
Same here. Just remember. I believe Rush said it and Bongino says it frequently... You’ll find dems running as republican but you’ll NEVER find a republican running as a dem.
The globalists got us rino’s like the Bush’s, cheney’s and most of the current gop congress.
All progressives thank you. Enjoy you CRT and pronouns.
Actually, probably unlike you, I have actual first hand knowledge of stolen votes, altho I don’t the aggregate would have swayed the election. Regardless, we can’t go back in time and have a do over. If you want to prevent it going forward, then vote Republican. Otherwise, all we get are more progressives.
Trump is too bitter. He has no platform, other than to attack other Republicans and red states like Florida. I voted for him twice and gave him money, now frankly, I’m sick of him. And he is the only person in America who has lost/will lose to Biden.
Unless that happens, state secession or civil war is the only answer.
Trump is a wildcard...deep state/controlling authority is (obviously) scared sh tless of him....will pull out all the stops to keep him out.
2018, they experimented, 2020 they took him out.
I'll vote my usual Republican ticket...but if they keep the current system, I'm not very optimistic...particularly here in Michigan.
If they keep the status quo, only remedy that I can see...is to do away with the secret ballot. Have it open for all to see/audit/investigate the results.
Secret digital computation is too easy to manipulate...or "wipe like a cloth"...leaving no digital trail(evidence).
I simply don't trust these cretins as far as I can throw them.
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