Here is the study. It is well done and sourced. I remember Trump relating the story of meeting with a general soon after he took office. The General mentioned that he couldn’t take on a mission because he lacked sufficient munitions. Trump said that he would never allow that to happen again.
As a former naval supply officer who served a year in Vietnam, I have an appreciation for the importance of logistics in warfare. I am also skeptical of anyone who has a childlike faith that our current woke military is operationally effective witness our botched exit from Afghanistan.
You are right that now I am making the assumption that our military isn’t entirely woke and broke.
But historically speaking, we were very smart about these sort of things. We can’t predict every need perfectly, but it is exactly our logistics and war industrial base which made us prevail in many of these conflicts, like WWII.
The soldiers we fight in many of these wars are just as willing to die for their country as I was, my father or grandfather... Some were probably tougher and meaner, maybe even more experienced at least in the beginning of the war. But NO-ONE could shit a P-51 Mustang in a matter of 6 months (blueprint to full scale production), no one can squeeze out almost 4,000 B-29s in the war (truly the most capable bomber of the entire war - forget jets, bla bla bla, junk), nuclear bombs, at the peak of the war we were building 1 aircraft carrier per month!
Go to Google earth and put in these coordinates: 40°11’46.62” N 120°08’44.90” W (that stuff is being kept serviceable) Not counting the stuff afloat, on installations, just the fixed site depots: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/depot-army.htm
We have depots with tanks, 113s, Bradley’s, M109s, ammo, trucks, HMMWVs, as far as the eye can see, literally. We have something like 8,000 M1’s, in excess of 12,000,000,000 rounds of 7.62 alone in storage, not counting 556, 50 cal... or what is currently being used for training or carried by those deployed... Some of the 155mm shells going to Ukraine are coming from our depots in Israel, like 300,000 shells. When we decided to get rid of our chem weapons years ago we pulled 100,000 155mm chem shells from one depot at Miesau (GE) alone.
***Why do I say all of this? This is our game! The Russians are pitting their war industrial base against ours. They will ultimately succeed in Ukraine when we decide to call it quits, but they CANNOT keep us with us and today the balance is even more dilapidated than in the Cold War where they lost for the same reason (Reagan outspending them). This is sucking the life out of them.***
We clobber folks with our industry and tech. Lend-Lease in WWII for the UK and Russia kept them alive. The Russians may deny that once we no longer liked each other, but it’s a fact. How do you fight someone if you’re the Germans or Japanese in WWII that can produce >49,200 medium (not counting heavy and light) tanks in 4 years? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_Sherman
There is a movie scene which puts this in perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owbCW5jBQZc
***If it were US troops dying right now in Ukraine, you would have a huge political fight on your hand. The negative news of casualties, lost ground, captured, wounded, forced conscription, stories of corruption, political elites making sure their immediate family don’t get drafted, some of the abuses would be dominating the news.***
But in this case we have someone else doing the bleeding and all we do is keep supplying them with weapons, ammo, missiles, armored vehicles, artillery shells... and that we can do very well.
When you read stories like this, it’s nothing: https://freerangeamerican.us/ukraine-ammunition/ A drop in the bucket. Our defense industry has it’s own production (ATK) and one plant can squeeze out 1.6 billion rounds per year of 762 alone: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/atk-delivers-2-billion-762mm-rounds-to-the-us-army-from-the-lake-city-army-ammunition-plant-lcaap-169607006.html
I do not agree with this war (needless and Russia is NOT our #1 threat - this is a sad war where two nations are mauling each other and both have a lot to offer the world), but if we’re going to have it, this is the way to do it and as sick as his words are IMHO, he is right: https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1609642934244200448
This is a situation where we can exploit our strength: economic might in the macro, war industrial capacity, resources, high tech., massive stockpiles, the capabilities of our allies (UK, Germany, Korea, Japan...) and there is NO WAY the Russians can keep up.
Just my 2 cents.
When this is finished, Russia will be in a far weaker position even if they accomplish their military and political objectives in Ukraine.
This is depleting them, not us.