That's about the size of it. By my calculation, the Democratic Party's nominal electoral floor for 2024 is now at 276 electoral votes. And that's assuming that the GOP holds Georgia and Arizona. Ballot harvesting has pretty much taken Pennsylvania out of the mix; Trump's narrow win in 2016 won't be repeated.
There are very few true "battleground" states left. The only possible path for a GOP electoral win in 2024 would have to go through Wisconsin, it seems to me.
“assuming that the GOP holds Georgia and Arizona.“
Well Ga is obviously gone. Az was stolen and that is not even debatable. The rats now have the Az Governor, AG and SOS so now they weld the door shut. So even Biden will win again unless something happens that l cannot see.