Nevada Secretary of State Posts General Election Turnout

The Nevada Independent ^ | October 29, 2022 | Jon Ralston

[Republicans 2016 2020]

Deeper dive into SOS numbers just posted:

Douglas, the second largest rural county by voters, had a huge turnout that I did not have -- 8,000 voters and 2 to 1 R. That added 2,000 ballots to the R lead in the rurals and made the projected lead with Trump margins up to 15,000 so far in the rurals.

If that projection is correct, the Dem statewide lead is only 6,500, or 2.1 percent; the actual lead with the rural numbers is 3.3 percent, still slightly above the Dem reg lead of 2.7 percent.

Remember, we don't know how many ticket-splitters at the top there are this time, and we don't know how pervasive tribalism will be down the ticket. We also don't know how the indies will break, which is the key to everything. If they are going single digits for the GOP, some Dems could hang on. But if they are double digits, I see a lot of red people.

[null and void]

Nevada Ping!

To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...

[God luvs America]

Funny- I’m getting ready to leave the house and i turned on local ABC news for the weather. They cut to martha rodovich, or whatever her name is- the ABC national reporter who cried on TV the night Trump won in 2016.

She was talking about wherever they go to preview the midterms the economy is the number issue on voters minds. She then spoke specifically about Nevada and Vegas, which she said is usually a dim stronghold but all the workers are concerned about the economy. She mentioned the “incumbent” in Nevada has been in hiding and rarely seen and it was going to be a tough fight for the dims.

I thought she was going to start crying- again.

[deport]

Remember, we don't know how many ticket-splitters at
the top there are this time, and we don't know how
tribalism will be down the ticket. We also don't know how
the indies will break, which is the key to everything. If they
are going single digits for the GOP, some Dems could hang
on. But if they are double digits, I see a lot of red people.

So they don't know very much but write and article to tell
the people that. Well at least they appear honest.

[PermaRag]

This article makes 2 very good points which people who toss around early voting numbers very often miss:

1.   We have no idea who these early voters are actually voting for, and

2.   "We also don't know how the indies will break"

The experts who cook up their analyzes and conclusively declare what early voting numbers "mean" are making assumptions that (when those assumptions turn out to be wrong, as frequently happens) render the whole thing as just one more meaningless exercise.

[dangus]

Seems like a massive load of nothing that can be boiled down to this:

Marginally more Democrats than Republicans have already voted. This is consistent with registration data, so means nothing.

We don’t know how people are actively voting.

We don’t know if Democrats or Republicans are more likely to vote early or late or by mail or in person.

We don’t know how Indepedents are voting.

We don’t know jack squat about anything until oh, I don’t know, there’s actually some results.

I don’t mean to slam the people gathering this data; I just mean there’s not much we can do with it.

[bert]

We suspect that Democrats will just not turn out to vote.

[rktman]

Unbelievable lies in the ads. Both sides. Turn out will be key. We went last week in person. “F” a mail in ballot or turning it over to the folks at the voting station. And all the whining about question 3 by the independents? “Your vote your choice” assclowns. You get to vote in the general so quit lying. Nobody is ‘denying’ them a vote.😵‍💫

[null and void]

Nonpartisans can still vote for measures and initiatives in a primary.

You want to vote for a partisan candidate? Register as a partisan.

[rktman]

See my recent post. NV ping it if you like:

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4104691/posts

Yup, Washoe............

[Dan in Wichita]

From the article:

We also don't know how the indies will break, which is the key to everything.

In nearly every poll reported here on FR over the last few weeks, where the Indies/Undecideds are asked which direction they're leaning, they are leaning heavily (by double digits) in the R direction.

[KC Burke]

My only concern is the data in the last few years about how many Californians have moved to the Reno and Vegas areas. Concerning trend.

[null and void]

Many, but not all, departed that state to the left of us to get away from their politics and policies.

[KC Burke]

I hope that turns out to be the case. When I spent a little time running some stuff in Sacramento, I found a lot of good conservatives of all races in the Central Valley.

Good to see you, BTW.