How many days of supply do we have normally? How can one assess the risk?
Drill, Baby, Drill. Refine, Baby, Refine.
How many days of supply do we have normally?
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/a-25-day-diesel-supply-and-surging-demand-are-a-worry-for-biden
Good question and I was wondering the same thing. Go about halfway down this Bloomberg page and you will find a graph entitled “US Diesel Supply Crunch Worst since 2008”. The graph shows the trend line of the number of days of diesel supply from 2008 to the present time. If I can summarize the trend line over that period in a sentence or two (based on a quick visual review), the peak number of days is 55 and the average looks to be a bit over 35 days.
Perhaps the most concerning part of the trend line is just how fast the latest drop has occurred... it looks like it dropped from say 34 days to 25 days in a very short timeframe i.e. as in dropping off the table. This drop appears to be over a 2 month period and it is still dropping at the same rate (although the graph might just appear that way because of how the data for the graph was put together without enough data points to fill in the most recent timeframe).
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-The-Diesel-Crisis-Became-An-Inflationary-Time-Bomb.html Here is a better link with a lot more meaningful data that includes this statement... “In short, record low supply (courtesy of stifling regulations that have led to a historic shortage of refining capacity) meet record high demand. What comes next is, well, ugly (while weekly demand dipped slightly in the latest week, it’s still at highest point in two years amid higher trucking, farming and heating use).”